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Highlights: * Xi Jinping heads to Washington, meetings with Trump in focus * Flash PMI data in focus, as well as more Fedspeak * USD strength pervades, putting key levels in both GBPUSD and USDMXN into view US TSYS: Paring Gains, Flash PMIs Ahead, Trump Welcomes Xi Tonight: s-xi-tonight-1790161492747 Treasuries are mil
* GBPUSD's drift through the 1.33 handle today is the first since late July and brings spot within range of key support into 1.3274, the pullback low before the August rally. While the rallying USD is the primary driver of the move here (USD Index trades back above 100.00), short-term underlying momentum in EURGBP is a
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * TRUMP HAILS IRAN TALKS EVEN AS TEHRAN SETS 'FIRM POSITIONS': #0244e48b-2945-4b3b-8085-728a924ddf38 * ZELENSKY ASKS TRUMP FOR WINTER ARMS PACKAGE, EXPECTS ENERGY-CEASEFIRE PUSH: WSJ: #cddd3044-ae77-4efa-9233-fb28b1e6f368 * NAGEL SAYS 'VIGILANT' ECB MAY NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE RATES: #13be4029-5b8c-40
Note this document has been updated to include sell-side views. Download Full Report Here: Executive summary: * The National Bank of Hungary kept the base rate unchanged at 5.50%, with the more significant development being the formal adoption of a lower inflation target. * Policymakers retained a cautious, data-depend
* Oil has continued to trend lower during Wednesday's APAC session as talks continue on the sidelines of this week's UN gathering. The fact negotiations are even taking place to facilitate Middle East energy shipments is driving optimism in markets but the situation remains very precarious. UST futures are higher, but
ECB 3 Year CPI Expectations: 2.9% (est 2.8%; prev 2.7%)
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher early Friday as investors awaited August consumer price inflation data. The body also cited elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate hike and several earnings reports later in the day.
The dollar index rose to 99 on Thursday. Oil prices rallied amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, pushing investors to price a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed rate increase next week (up from 60%).
European stocks ended near flat while Brent climbed above $97, German Bund yields rose and Germany’s AfD won a major state-level vote, deepening political uncertainty.
Ahead of the ECB rate decision, Europe’s energy shock and oil near $100 are expected to factor into tighter policy messaging. Strong US payrolls are cited as reviving Fed expectations.
ECB CPI Expectations
ECB 3 Year CPI Expectations: 2.8% (est 2.9%; prev 2.9%)
**Consensus expectations: - Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.2% prior - CPI Core Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.6% prior - Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.2% prior **Note: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2% - Reading has seen the annual pace stay above target for the past three months Recent comme
Summary US equity market looked to finish off quarter and month on an up note. Tech did a good portion of the heavy lifting, unwinding some the mega-cap weakness/rotations seen into quarters end. May JOLTS jobs data jumped up towards 7.6M openings pushing up Treasury yields marginally. EU CPI readings were broadly cool
Summary US equity market looked to finish off quarter and month on an up note. Tech did a good portion of the heavy lifting, unwinding some the mega-cap weakness/rotations seen into quarters end. May JOLTS jobs data jumped up towards 7.6M openings pushing up Treasury yields marginally. EU CPI readings were broadly cool
**Consensus expectations: - CPI M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.6% prior - CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.7% prior **Note: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2% - Annual pace has registered three straight months with CPI above the ECB target Various States released earlier i
**Notes/Observations** - Month-end data flow was broadly constructive for the eurozone but added to the ECB's policy dilemma. French preliminary June CPI surprised to the downside at 1.8% y/y (vs 2.0%e), bringing headline inflation back to target for the first time in three months, while French consumer spending (+0.5%
CPI Hesse M/M: % v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.6% prior - CPI Bavaria M/M: % v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6% prior - CPI Brandenburg M/M: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.8% prior - CPI Saxony M/M: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.8% prior - CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: % v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.4% prior
**Consensus expectations: - CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior - CPI Hesse M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior - CPI Bavaria M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior - CPI Brandenburg M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior - CPI Saxony
CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e - - **Insight: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2%
CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.0%e; Y/Y: % v 2.3%e **Insight: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2% - Annual Headline inflation back at target for the 1st time in 3 months - Annual Headline inflation stays above target for 3rd straight month
**Consensus expectations: - CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.4% prior - CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.8% prior also due out: - 02:45 (FR) France May PPI M/M: No est v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior **Insight: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2% - Annual Headline i
**All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) ***As always times are subject to change*** **Economic data** - (MX) Mexico May Public Balance (MXN): No est v -220.8B prior - (BR) Brazil May Total Formal Job Creation: No est v 85.9K prior - (CO) Colombia
Spain's May retail sales data due at 03:00 ET
***General Trend and Developments*** -Crude oil looked to be heading towards a higher open and US equity FUTs a lower open, until 20 minutes before the Monday reopenings, when Axios reported that the US and Iran would halt strikes and meet tomorrow in Doha, Qatar. -Oil ended up only opening modestly higher by US armed
**All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) ***As always times are subject to change*** **Economic data** - 01:00 (FI) Finland Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v -10.5 prior; Business Confidence: No est v 3 prior - 02:00 (SE) Sweden May Trade Balance (
ECB CPI Expectations
ECB 3 Year CPI Expectations: 2.9% (est 2.8%; prev 2.9%)
The ECB is releasing its May Consumer Expectation Survey, which includes 1-year and 3-year ahead CPI expectations.