Preview: Spain May Retail Sales data expected at 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT)

**Consensus expectations: - CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.2% prior - CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.4%e v 3.6% prior - CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 3.0% prior **Insight: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2% - Annual pace has been above ECB target since Jun 2025 Recent comments: - On Jun 11th ECB raised its Key Rates by 25bps (as expected) to move into tightening with its 1st rate hike since Sept 2023). Statement noted that the decision to raise rates was robust across range of scenarios. Reiterates stance of not pre-committing to a particular rate path. To closely monitor the situation and follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. Reiterated stance that stood ready to adjust all instruments. Outlook remained uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth. - On Jun 11th ECB updated its Staff Projections which raised 2026 inflation from 2.6% to 3.0% (mild scenario: 2.9%; adverse scenario: 3.3%) and raised 2027 inflation from 2.0% to 2.3% (mild scenario: 1.8%; adverse scenario: 3.0%) *Insight: ECB moved into tightening in Jun 2026 with its 1st rate hike since Sept 2023 - Previously ECB had cut its Key Rates eight times under the current easing cycle by a total of 175bps. The last cut was in Jun 2025

CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.6%e; Y/Y: % v 3.4%e - CPI Core Y/Y: % v 3.0%e **Insight: ECB has an symmetrical inflation target of 2% - Annual pace has been above ECB target since Jun 2025