US Trading Hours Summary: May JOLTS openings rise; First half comes to a close

Summary US equity market looked to finish off quarter and month on an up note.

Tech did a good portion of the heavy lifting, unwinding some the mega-cap weakness/rotations seen into quarters end.

May JOLTS jobs data jumped up towards 7.6M openings pushing up Treasury yields marginally.

EU CPI readings were broadly cooler than expected but came alongside generally robust retails sales and consumer data.

The USD/JPY Yen broke above 162 for the first time in 40-years.

Overnight - Month-end data flow was broadly constructive for the eurozone but added to the ECB's policy dilemma.

French preliminary June CPI surprised to the downside at 1.8% y/y (vs 2.0%e), bringing headline inflation back to target for the first time in three months, while French consumer spending (+0.5% m/m) beat.

German May retail sales jumped 1.1% m/m (vs flat expected), unemployment unexpectedly fell (-1.0k vs +5.0k expected), and the early North Rhine-Westphalia CPI print eased to 2.1% y/y ahead of the national figure.

The main inflation watch-out came from German import prices, up 6.8% y/y - the strongest annual rise since December 2022.

Elsewhere, Italian PPI cooled sharply, Swiss KOF beat (101.2 vs 99.0e), and Finland's GDP indicator firmed - On the ECB itself, the messaging skewed hawkish.

Lagarde opened the Sintra forum arguing Europe is now more resilient to shocks, characterizing June's quarter-point move as a deliberate, unanimous decision rather than an "insurance hike." Chief Economist Lane reinforced this, calling it a "robust decision" and flagging that oil prices may stay above pre-war levels for a couple of years, keeping a cost-push impulse in the system.

Nagel said it was too early to commit on further hikes but stressed vigilance and warned inflation could stay well above target; Wunsch went further, saying another hike may be needed and he'd rather move quickly.

With energy prices having retreated rapidly, press sources suggest the upcoming eurozone inflation print (tomorrow) could put a July hike back on the table.

Separately on trade, Sefcovic and China's Wang held "constructive" talks, and the EU and China set an October deadline to reset trade ties via a joint statement on new consultations. - UK macro was softer.

Final Q1 GDP held at 0.6% q/q but the annual rate was revised down to 0.9% (from 1.1%), nudging gilt yields lower and reinforcing expectations that BoE rate-hike odds are fading as growth slows.

The current account deficit came in slightly wider at -£22.1B, BRC shop price inflation held at 1.2%, business confidence dropped, and Zoopla flagged a 7% fall in sales agreed.

Sainsbury's Q1 update was modestly ahead with guidance affirmed. - A few cross-asset threads matter for European desks.

The yen is the standout move: USD/JPY broke above 162 to a fresh 40-year low (weakest since 1986), with markets now eyeing 163-165 and intervention risk rising; Japanese officials repeated that "bold actions" remain an option but have so far only verbal-intervened.

The yen's slide dragged gold and silver lower.

On China, June official PMIs improved (manufacturing 50.3, composite 50.6) but analysts still see Q2 growth slowing toward ~4.6%, and trade frictions are widening (fresh anti-dumping deposits of up to 73.5% on Canadian pea starch; export curbs that drew a Japanese protest) - Xiaomi has reportedly slashed its 2026 smartphone shipment target by another ~30% to approximately 95 million units, following an already weakened guidance of ~135 million, a significant drop from the ~170 million units shipped in 2025.

This steeper reset adds mounting pressure on the company’s core smartphone business amid softening demand and supply chain constraints, even as investors increasingly pivot toward its electric vehicle growth story.

The development echoes broader industry challenges, with Apple CEO Cook raising product prices and warning that the global memory chip shortage will compress iPhone margins in the coming year.

US - (US) Trump administration said to be drafting a ban on imports of foreign energy inverters, the equipment that connects solar projects and batteries to the grid - press - (CA) CANADA APR GDP M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.1% V 0.9%E - (US) APR S&P COTALITY HOUSE PRICE INDEX (20-CITY) M/M: -0.04% V -0.10%E; Y/Y: 1.14% V 0.90%E - (US) APR FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.1% V 0.2%E - (CL) Chile May Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.5%e - (CL) Chile May Unemployment Rate: 9.4% v 9.2%e - (US) JUN CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): 56.7 V 55.1E - (US) JUN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 91.2 V 94.4E - (US) MAY JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 7.594M V 7.300ME - (US) US Supreme Court rules against Trump's order to limit birthright citizenship; Vote was 6-3 - (US) Fed's Hammack (voter): Inflation is still too high, Fed may need to consider rate hikes to bring inflation to target; Seeing no tension in the dual mandate right now - CNBC interview Europe and Asia - (JP) Japan Econ Min Kiuchi: Hope BOJ works closely with govt to durably achieve the target [**Note: comments follow recent press speculation that Japan govt apply pressure for BOJ slow its tightening pace] - (PT) Portugal Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3% prior - (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) Financial Stability Report for Jun: global financial stability risks remain elevated - (DE) Germany reportedly demanding €400B cut to EU Commission's proposed 2028-34 budget of €2.0T - press (20% reduction) - (IL) Israel Fin Min said to call for a sharp Base rate cut at the upcoming BOI policy decisio - (IR) Iran official: Serious challenges remain in US implementation of MOU; IAEA access to damaged nuclear sites remains blocked -(DE) GERMANY JUN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.3% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.6%E -(UK) Bank of England (BOE) Gov Baily: Frustrated not back at inflation target and could still rise later this year - CNBC -(EU) ECB's Rehn (Finland): Sees plenty of geopolitical uncertainty going forward; It's important not to commit to a predetermined rate path;