MNI US OPEN - Trump Hails "Very Good" Talks With Iran's Envoys

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * TRUMP HAILS IRAN TALKS EVEN AS TEHRAN SETS 'FIRM POSITIONS': #0244e48b-2945-4b3b-8085-728a924ddf38 * ZELENSKY ASKS TRUMP FOR WINTER ARMS PACKAGE, EXPECTS ENERGY-CEASEFIRE PUSH: WSJ: #cddd3044-ae77-4efa-9233-fb28b1e6f368 * NAGEL SAYS 'VIGILANT' ECB MAY NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE RATES: #13be4029-5b8c-4083-8fc4-7fdc8382cc53 * EUROZONE-WIDE FLASH PMI CONFIRMS ANOTHER SOLID MONTH OF ACTIVITY: #56c11e63-1f02-4819-bb65-bce05b53f01f Figure 1: Eurozone Sept flash PMI shows another solid month of activity, inflation higher NEWS US/IRAN (BBG: ): Trump Hails Iran Talks Even as Tehran Sets 'Firm Positions' US President Donald Trump said his officials had "very good" talks with Iranian envoys in New York, reviving hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp hours after he threatened to "annihilate" the country's ruling regime.

Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president's son in law, participated on behalf of the US. Witkoff said the negotiations were conducted through mediators shuttling between each delegation. Iran's state media said the country was represented by the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and that the US had requested the meeting. Iran laid down "firm positions" for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, IRIB News reported, citing an unnamed source.

S. will pursue a deal to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Zelensky said that in a meeting with President Trump earlier in the day, he had requested new weapons ahead of winter, including Patriot antimissile systems and other technologies. Zelensky said he is aware that energy remains a Trump priority.

"I think he will try to negotiate some energy ceasefire," Zelensky said. S. I. S.

and Chinese officials are setting up a dialogue about artificial intelligence and a hotline to report national security risks from the technology. I. models. I.

and tech titans, including executives from OpenAI, Google and Nvidia. I. is front and center as officials from the United States and China meet this week in New York and Washington. I.

regulation, experts do not expect much headway. 3 billion gas-fired power development in Texas. Trump and Lee met for roughly 30 minutes at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, South Korea's National Security Advisor Wi Sung-lac, said. They "welcomed the significant progress made in discussions regarding strategic investment projects between the two nations," he added.

US/UK (The Times: after-andy-burnham-trump-meeting-lprwtg7x6): 'Terrible' Chagos Deal Under Review After Andy Burnham-Trump Meeting Andy Burnham has agreed to review Britain's plans to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after President Trump described them as "terrible" and "ridiculous" during their first face-to-face meeting. Trump praised Burnham as a "natural businessperson" and said relations were "more up" than they had been with Sir Keir Starmer during a largely cordial meeting on the fringes of the UN general assembly in New York.

However, Trump made clear that he remained opposed to the deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while paying for a lease of Diego Garcia, a joint UK-US base in the Indian Ocean which Trump regards as key to US security. ECB (BBG: ): Nagel Says 'Vigilant' ECB May Need Mildly Restrictive Rates The European Central Bank may have to raise interest rates to a level at which they hold back economic growth, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel.

" ECB (BBG: ): ECB Will Have to Act If Energy-Cost Inflation Spreads: Makhlouf The European Central Bank will have to act if energy costs are transmitted into other areas of inflation, according to Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf. "We're not seeing those sort of second-round effects that start feeding through to prices and create these loops," Makhlouf said. " If energy prices stay elevated, however, "we will have to take action again to meet our target," the Irish central-bank chief told RTE radio Wednesday.

INDIA (BBG: ): Modi Plans Canada Trip for Trade Deal, Speeds Up Mexico Talks India is accelerating trade talks with Canada and Mexico as the three economies seek new markets and partners in response to the disruption unleashed by President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Negotiators from India and Canada plan to hold a fifth round of talks from Oct. 5, building on discussions that concluded last week, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal is likely to be inked in December when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Canada, the Globe and Mail reported, citing New Delhi's envoy Dinesh Patnaik.

INDONESIA (BBG: ): Indonesia Holds Rate, Boosts Rupiah Hedging Incentives Indonesia's central bank kept its interest rate unchanged for a third straight meeting, choosing to rely on continued intervention and increased hedging incentives to support the rupiah in the face of higher oil prices and US yields. 75% on Wednesday as expected by 33 of 36 economists surveyed. The rest had penciled in a quarter-point hike. Bank Indonesia also further cut the premiums for conventional hedging swaps on portfolio investments by up to 25% and for domestic non-deliverable forwards by up to 30%.

00% at Thursday's meeting. 7% June SNB f'cast for the quarter. 48% through the June-27 SNB meeting. MNI NORGES BANK PREVIEW: Split Down the Middle Norges Bank's September decision is expected to be a close call between a hike and a hold.

Markets head into the decision close to evenly priced, and Bloomberg consensus at the time of writing is similarly split (10 see a hike, 10 see a hold). 75% on Thursday, though the updated September MPR rate path is likely to see a modest upward revision. A moderation in CPIF ex-energy and temporary fiscal policy inflation in August has removed pressure on the Executive Board to act as soon as September. 00% nominal neutral rate estimate is approaching.

50% for a third successive meeting on Thursday, consistent with forward guidance that signals no immediate change in rates. Recent inflation data have surprised marginally to the downside, with both the headline and core rates tracking inside Banxico's 2-4% target range. Despite this, risks to the outlook remain high amid ongoing geopolitical, climate and trade uncertainties. MNI SARB PREVIEW: 25bp Hike Likely Our bias is toward the South African Reserve Bank reverting to its rate hiking cycle after a surprise pause in July, as mounting upside risks to the inflation outlook necessitate a show of commitment, with the credibility of the new +3% Y/Y objective at stake.

Although inflation has now pulled back from cyclical highs, inflation expectations have moderated somewhat, and GDP contracted in 2Q26, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside. Facing the question of whether 'slightly restrictive' monetary policy settings will suffice to meet the inflation target over the medium term, the MPC may prefer to err on the side of caution. 0 AUG) The Eurozone-wide September flash PMI confirms another solid month of activity, extending resilience in the face of the US-Iran war energy shock. Both services and manufacturing components contributed, though the former was the main upside surprise versus consensus.

Taken alongside hawkish developments inflation components, there is little to push back on the hawkish rhetoric employed at the ECB's September decision. Questions around the timing of future hike/hikes remains though. 8 AUG) The German flash PMI was also stronger than expected, with the services component jumping into expansionary territory. The composite index rose to the highest in a year.

Output charge inflation ticked up for services, though the diffusion index remains below levels seen earlier this year. 5 AUG) Stronger than expected French flash PMI data, including a hawkish set of inflation details. It's the strongest composite PMI since August 2024. We note that year-ahead confidence did drop to a 4 month low, with political uncertainty and higher interest rates playing a role.

5 AUG) UK flash PMI was a little lower than expected for services but a little higher for manufacturing. Some interesting themes in here: job numbers still decreasing but at only a marginal pace (supporting other evidence of the bottoming out of the labour market that Ramsden in particular is focused on). Growth being concentrated in technology (AI driven) and defence, but consumer-driven sectors still subdued - which has been evident in the most recent GDP data too with AI in particular driving higher-than-expected growth. And price pressures starting to be passed on more.

All of which signals probably more in the direction of the PMI data being increasingly supportive of a hike. " Inflation and cost of living (reported by 64%), industry-wide pay increases (52%) and minimum wage increases (47%) are highlighted as upward pressures. The BOE will be wary of the number of employers citing inflation and cost of living being a factor in consideration (albeit this is alway the case to some extent) but the 3% pay award is as yet showing little sign of second round effects. 5% for the fourth consecutive month in August.

4% on a 3mma basis. It points to relatively stable labour market conditions ahead of tomorrow's Norges Bank decision. On average over the last three months versus the three months prior, the number of unemployed persons has declined by 6k, with a 7k rise in the number of employed persons. 7, there was a pickup in Q3 signalling GDP growth may have improved in the quarter.

8, which was impacted by geopolitical uncertainty and jump in fuel prices. However, Q3 services PMI was also higher than Q1 and Q4 signalling resilience. Cost growth rose to its highest for Q3 driven by services but importantly selling price inflation also increased implying increased cost pass through but both measures are below Q2's highs. The RBA will continue to watch second-round effects from higher fuel costs as it worries upside inflation risks are "materialising".

The market has a 86% chance of hike on 29 September. 9% respectively. The data are volatile and so 3-month averages are needed to gauge the trend. They have signalled a gradual easing in labour market conditions, which the RBA has welcomed in its fight to return inflation to target.

5% is still a "bit tight" but if it edged towards 5%, it could be high enough to ease price pressures. 86. 35% weaker this morning. A set of solid flash PMIs from the Eurozone have had no effect on the softening Euro.

1325, the Jun 24 low and a key medium-term support. 5694. 5762 and the ensuing weakness proves that short-term rallies remain purely corrective at this juncture, with a strong underlying bearish theme in play. 5626.

* In emerging markets, dollar strength is playing out nicely against the Mexican peso as we approach a Banxico decision on Thursday. 38 this morning. * US flash PMIs highlight the calendar on Thursday before the focus turns to the Trump-Xi summit and a plethora of central bank decisions on Thursday. EGBS: Yields Off Session Lows Following Hawkish PMIs, Energy Recovery: mis-energy-recovery-1790156252087 German yields have moved away from session lows, a combination of hawkish flash PMIs and a small recovery in energy benchmarks.

244%. If next week's Eurozone flash September inflation readings surprise meaningfully to the upside, it could bring an ECB October hike back into play (currently ~55% priced).