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Traders spent this week repricing the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of an interest rate increase at next Wednesday’s meeting climbed from roughly a coin flip to about 90% after back-to-back inflation reports left little room to argue that price pressures are fading. Crude Above $100 Is Doing The Damage Thurs
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 from 51.7 in August, the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history. Expectations dropped more sharply than current conditions, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
September consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 versus 51.4 consensus and 51.7 in August, per University of Michigan preliminary data. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% and five-year implied inflation to 3.4%.
Oracle climbed in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter financial results and raising its FY27 adjusted EPS guidance.
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher early Friday as investors awaited August consumer price inflation data. The body also cited elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate hike and several earnings reports later in the day.
University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations are reported as a preliminary reading.
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 set fresh highs as July CPI rose 0.1% and 3.4% annually, PPI was flat, and retail sales fell 0.6% versus a 0.1% consensus gain.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July versus expectations for a 0.1% gain, consumer sentiment dropped to 51, and Treasury yields climbed as small caps held up while tech lagged.
U.S. officials say the naval blockade of Iran can be maintained “indefinitely,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns of impending measures tied to the economic isolation campaign.
US 1-year inflation outlook falls to 4.2%
University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim July 54.4 (consensus 51.0) vs final June 49.5 University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim July 4.2% vs final June 4.6% University of Michigan surveys of consumers current conditions index prelim July 54.9 (consensus 48.7) vs fi
The University of Michigan's final June consumer confidence index is 49.5, slightly below expectations of 50.0
The US is releasing the final University of Michigan Confidence index for June