US inflation, sales data cool Fed hike bets; stocks hit records

The S&P 500 notched its 27th record close of 2026 above 7,800 on Thursday and the Russell 2000 — the benchmark for small caps — also marked fresh all-time highs as strong earnings and benign inflation data cooled fears of an imminent Fed rate hike.

Cool Inflation Data Took A September Hike Off The Table The consumer price index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% annually, a tick below June’s 3.5% and in line with consensus.

Producer prices did better than that: flat on the month against expectations of a 0.2% gain, with the annual rate decelerating to 4.7% from 5.5%.

Rate-hike pricing collapsed on the back of it.

Futures put the probability of a September increase near 25% by Friday, down from above 60% in the first days of August.

A hold is now the base case.

Storage Owned The Leaderboard Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK ) led the entire index with a 34.7% weekly gain, now up more than 60% since July’s lows.

The catalyst was Wednesday’s investor day, where management put the global flash market at $300 billion in 2026 and $500 billion in 2027 and the board cleared an additional $14 billion of buybacks.

Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI ) followed at 29.2% after Monday’s fiscal fourth-quarter report disclosed a record $60 billion order backlog, including a co-build with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX ), and gross margins roughly double prior guidance.

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX ) rounded out the top three at 20.3%, with high-capacity drive capacity sold out for 2026 and hyperscalers already contracting into 2027 and 2028.

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Fourth-quarter revenue grew 9% to $1.88 billion, adjusted earnings of $1.32 beat, and the dividend went up 16%.

Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $8.4 billion to $8.5 billion implied mid-single-digit growth against 14% delivered last year, with Kate Spade still contracting.

Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR ) shed 14.3% in a give-back week after a 44% run, despite a fiscal fourth quarter that beat with data center and communications revenue up 59%.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR ) fell 9.8% without a company-specific headline.

The Consumer Data Went The Other Way Retail sales contracted 0.6% in July versus a 0.1% consensus gain, with gasoline responsible for much of the shortfall and discretionary categories holding.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary August sentiment reading fell to 51.0 from 55.2, missing the 54.5 estimate and breaking a two-month improvement.

Just 8% of respondents expect income growth to beat inflation over the next year, against 18% in December 2024, and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3%.

Next week, Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT ) reports Wednesday and Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT ) follows Thursday, both before the open.

Between them they will say whether the caution in the surveys has reached the register.

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