Rate Hike Odds Jump to 90% as Record Diesel Lifts Inflation: This Week on Wall Street
Traders spent this week repricing the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of an interest rate increase at next Wednesday’s meeting climbed from roughly a coin flip to about 90% after back-to-back inflation reports left little room to argue that price pressures are fading. Crude Above $100 Is Doing The Damage Thursday’s producer price index showed initial signs of weakness, with the annual rate quickening to 5.4% from 4.8%. Friday’s consumer price index held the headline rate at 3.4% year-over-year, but the details mattered more: core prices, which strip out food and energy, advanced 0.3% month-over-month, above forecasts of 0.2%. Energy explains why those monthly readings keep running hot. Gasoline alone accounted for more than a third of August’s increase in consumer prices, rising 3.9% for the month and 27.4% year over year. West Texas Intermediate crude — as closely tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO ) — pushed above $100 a barrel, its highest since July, after a fresh round of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Crude has now gained more than 70% in 2026. The International Energy Agency deepened the squeeze Friday, removing another 1.4 million barrels per da
Traders spent this week repricing the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of an interest rate increase at next Wednesday’s meeting climbed from roughly a coin flip to about 90% after back-to-back inflation reports left little room to argue that price pressures are fading. 8%. 2%.
Energy explains why those monthly readings keep running hot. 4% year over year. West Texas Intermediate crude — as closely tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO ) — pushed above $100 a barrel, its highest since July, after a fresh round of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Crude has now gained more than 70% in 2026.
4 million barrels per day from its 2026 global supply forecast. 29 a gallon Friday, 15 cents higher than a week ago. Diesel is the bigger problem. 06 a gallon Friday, the first print above $6 and 63% above where it sat a year ago.
Diesel sets the cost of moving freight, working farmland and running construction equipment, which is how an energy shock spreads into everything else. The pain is now hitting consumers. 0 and marking the second-weakest reading in a survey that dates to the 1950s. 4%.
” Long Bond Yields Revisit 2007 Bond markets absorbed the message. 5%. 2 billion of bonds against a $6 billion cap. 1% as crude retreated.
8%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 modestly lower. 3% over the five sessions despite Friday’s bounce to $4,375 an ounce. Best S&P 500 Stocks This Week Skyworks Solutions Inc. 1% advance, its strongest week since 2009.
Two catalysts stacked: the foldable iPhone Duo launch from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL ), which opens for pre-order Saturday, and CEO Phil Brace ‘s comment at a Goldman Sachs conference that the chipmaker’s $22 billion all-stock merger with Qorvo Inc. (NASDAQ: QRVO ) has entered its final stages and should close by year-end. 7% and Dell Technologies Inc.
6% as buyers worked through the AI server supply chain all week. Corning Inc. 0% after unveiling a multi-year, multibillion-dollar agreement Tuesday to supply Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ ) with more than 80 million miles of optical fiber between 2027 and 2032, underwriting both broadband buildout and long-haul AI backbone capacity.
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