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Traders spent this week repricing the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of an interest rate increase at next Wednesday’s meeting climbed from roughly a coin flip to about 90% after back-to-back inflation reports left little room to argue that price pressures are fading. Crude Above $100 Is Doing The Damage Thurs
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 from 51.7 in August, the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history. Expectations dropped more sharply than current conditions, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
Oracle climbed in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter financial results and raising its FY27 adjusted EPS guidance.
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher early Friday as investors awaited August consumer price inflation data. The body also cited elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate hike and several earnings reports later in the day.
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 set fresh highs as July CPI rose 0.1% and 3.4% annually, PPI was flat, and retail sales fell 0.6% versus a 0.1% consensus gain.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July versus expectations for a 0.1% gain, consumer sentiment dropped to 51, and Treasury yields climbed as small caps held up while tech lagged.
The University of Michigan’s 5-Year inflation prelim prints at 3.3%, matching both the forecast of 3.3% and the previous 3.3%.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,798.99 after two cool inflation reports pushed a September rate hike out of view, according to the report.
U.S. officials say the naval blockade of Iran can be maintained “indefinitely,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns of impending measures tied to the economic isolation campaign.