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Traders spent this week repricing the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of an interest rate increase at next Wednesday’s meeting climbed from roughly a coin flip to about 90% after back-to-back inflation reports left little room to argue that price pressures are fading. Crude Above $100 Is Doing The Damage Thurs
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 from 51.7 in August, the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history. Expectations dropped more sharply than current conditions, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 set fresh highs as July CPI rose 0.1% and 3.4% annually, PPI was flat, and retail sales fell 0.6% versus a 0.1% consensus gain.
University of Michigan publishes a preliminary 1-year inflation expectations reading, a key gauge of near-term consumer price outlook.
U.S. officials say the naval blockade of Iran can be maintained “indefinitely,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns of impending measures tied to the economic isolation campaign.