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The S&P 500 has historically posted more muted returns during Federal Reserve tightening cycles that featured five or more rate hikes, according to historical market data shared by Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. Historical Data Reveals Muted S&P 500 Performance Detrick identified 12 post-World War I
Prediction-market and futures pricing moved sharply toward a September Federal Reserve rate hike after core inflation came in hotter than expected. Polymarket put the chance of a 25-basis-point hike around 80%, while CME FedWatch showed 91.6% Friday morning.
August consumer price index data is due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% in August and headline CPI about 0.4%. The report is seen as key to whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next week.
President Donald Trump threatened to halt trade with countries running U.S. trade surpluses unless the Fed lowers rates after August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, far above the 56,000 consensus.
Fed’s Waller said a September rate hike is something he would consider if August inflation data comes in hot.