S&P 500 Has Delivered ‘Muted Returns’ During Fed Cycles With More Than 5 Rate Hikes, Says Ryan Detrick
The S&P 500 has historically posted more muted returns during Federal Reserve tightening cycles that featured five or more rate hikes, according to historical market data shared by Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. Historical Data Reveals Muted S&P 500 Performance Detrick identified 12 post-World War II tightening cycles in which the Fed raised rates at least five times. While the S&P 500 index was “usually higher” during these periods—achieving positive total returns in 72.7% of cycles—”muted returns were common,” resulting in a median annualized return of 5.6%. Since WWII, there have been 12 cycles that saw the Fed hike at least five times. Stocks were usually higher during the hiking cycle, but muted returns were common. Assuming they start hiking tomorrow, the bigger questions is how many more hikes could be around the corner? pic.twitter.com/i3Q8RSkR1j — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 16, 2026 Read Also: Fed’s Waller Favors Holding Rates in September — Unless August Inflation Runs Hot Wall Street Research Corroborates Market Resilience Data from LPL Research supports the trend of market durability during monetary tightening. Analyzing six Fed tight
The S&P 500 has historically posted more muted returns during Federal Reserve tightening cycles that featured five or more rate hikes, according to historical market data shared by Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. Historical Data Reveals Muted S&P 500 Performance Detrick identified 12 post-World War II tightening cycles in which the Fed raised rates at least five times. 6%. Since WWII, there have been 12 cycles that saw the Fed hike at least five times.
Stocks were usually higher during the hiking cycle, but muted returns were common. Assuming they start hiking tomorrow, the bigger questions is how many more hikes could be around the corner? com/i3Q8RSkR1j — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 16, 2026 Read Also: Fed’s Waller Favors Holding Rates in September — Unless August Inflation Runs Hot Wall Street Research Corroborates Market Resilience Data from LPL Research supports the trend of market durability during monetary tightening. 7% following an initial rate increase.
LPL said rate hikes alone “do not typically derail bull markets” unless accompanied by rising recession risks. 00%. Wall Street economists remain divided on whether the move signals an extended cycle. Moody’s Economist Mark Zandi warned that “the odds of a serious Fed policy mistake are uncomfortably high and rising,” cautioning that aggressive policy moves could trigger a “self-reinforcing” economic downturn.
” Meanwhile, Trade Nation Senior Market Analyst David Morrison also told that 10-year Treasury yields surging above 5% reflect market repricing amid sticky inflation and substantial government debt issuance. How Have Stock Markets Performed in 2026? 60% year-to-date. 67% YTD.
On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. 54. 23. Read Also: Trump Says Rate Hikes 'Keep A Country Down,' But Prediction Markets Say His Own Fed Chair Has Teed One Up Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock