Gary Black Says a 'One-and-Done' Fed Hike Could Push Treasury Yields Lower and Be Better for Stocks
The Future Fund ‘s Gary Black said on Tuesday that a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, if positioned as a "one-and-done" move, could push 10-year Treasury yields lower and prove more supportive for equities than a prolonged hiking cycle. Driving Case for a Hike In the post on X, the investor said a single hike now could prevent Fed Chair Kevin Warsh from being “forced into a series of rate hikes” later, a path he said “would likely push 10-year Treasury yields higher, hurting growth equities.” He added that Brent prices are likely to fall if President Donald Trump can negotiate an end to the war, which would also help Republicans in the midterms. At the time of writing, Brent crude was down 0.89% at $107.54, while WTI futures were down 1.65% at $104.08. U.S. annual inflation held at 3.4% in August, with gasoline rising 3.9% for the month and accounting for more than a third of the overall increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “A short term rate hike tomorrow if positioned as potentially one-and-done could push 10-year treasury yields lower,” Black added. I believe it’s better for equities if the Fed raises short-term rates by 25bp tomorrow (first Fed rate increase sinc
The Future Fund ‘s Gary Black said on Tuesday that a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, if positioned as a "one-and-done" move, could push 10-year Treasury yields lower and prove more supportive for equities than a prolonged hiking cycle. ” He added that Brent prices are likely to fall if President Donald Trump can negotiate an end to the war, which would also help Republicans in the midterms. 08. S.
9% for the month and accounting for more than a third of the overall increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “A short term rate hike tomorrow if positioned as potentially one-and-done could push 10-year treasury yields lower,” Black added. I believe it’s better for equities if the Fed raises short-term rates by 25bp tomorrow (first Fed rate increase since July 2023) in response to elevated oil prices (brent crude +50% since end of Feb) than to get forced into a series of rate hikes.
While brent prices are likely… — Gary Black (@garyblack00) September 15, 2026 Not Everyone Agrees a Hike Would Help Investor Peter Schiff has argued the opposite, telling that “Treasury bonds will continue to sell off ” regardless of what the Fed does, since a quarter-point hike is “too little, too late” to meaningfully address inflation. He’s said the Fed would need much larger increases, along with a shrinking money supply and balance sheet, to actually get ahead of the problem. 00%. 40%.
4%. m. ET, half an hour after the Fed announces its interest rate decision. 71.
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