Traders brace for August CPI’s razor-thin 0.2% or 0.3% call
August consumer price index data is due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% in August and headline CPI about 0.4%. The report is seen as key to whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next week.
m. ET and could shape whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. 3%. 2%.
22%. 2%. 2%. 2%.
2% in August. 5%. 4%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has given one of the clearest indications of how officials may react.
” Three Fed officials already voted to raise rates by 25 basis points at July’s meeting. That leaves unusual focus on a narrow gap. 3% print would make the argument for a September hike much stronger. Thursday’s producer-price report added pressure.
2% from July. Polymarket traders put the chance of a September hike near 50% at the start of the week. The odds climbed to 63% Thursday after oil surged and producer-price inflation stayed elevated. 2% CPI print may not look completely benign.
9% Thursday. Former Fed economist Vincent Reinhart said markets are “double-dog daring” Warsh to deliver the hike investors have increasingly priced in, after Jackson Hole setup that made a move seem more likely without saying what would trigger it. Truflation CEO Stefan Rust said on Monday that current data did not justify a hike, though he said a larger oil shock could alter that view. Brent has since climbed above 104.
m. ET. 3% is hot enough to push officials toward a hike. Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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