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Traders spent this week repricing the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of an interest rate increase at next Wednesday’s meeting climbed from roughly a coin flip to about 90% after back-to-back inflation reports left little room to argue that price pressures are fading. Crude Above $100 Is Doing The Damage Thurs
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 from 51.7 in August, the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history. Expectations dropped more sharply than current conditions, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July versus expectations for a 0.1% gain, consumer sentiment dropped to 51, and Treasury yields climbed as small caps held up while tech lagged.
University of Michigan prelim 1-year inflation expectations print 4.3%, above the 4.2% forecast and unchanged versus the 4.2% previous reading.