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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * MNI FED: Gov Barr: Base Case Is For Further Hikes: #83aa171c-7fc4-49fd-82f5-351bcb071d96 * MNI IRAN: Security Chief Says In No Rush To Negotiate: #5df7e2ac-e490-4920-91fd-84069fe559a3 * MNI IRAN: Pezeshkian Talks On Nuclear, Hormuz & US Stance In UN Address: #c9b6854d-8cab-47cb-8646-ce411062279c * M
HIGHLIGHTS * Gov Barr (permanent FOMC voter)'s speech Tuesday is primarily on the longer-term outlook for the housing sector, but importantly he notes that his "base case" is for "further policy adjustments" (plural) * Iranian security chief Rezaii via Irib: "Iran has not been in a hurry to negotiate; today, Iran's con
* Treasuries look to finish broadly weaker but off midday lows after yields climbed to the highest levels in 20 years Wednesday. Higher than expected S&P flash PMIs (carry over from hawkish flash PMIs for EGBs) triggered heavy selling, while doubts over US/Iran diplomatic efforts spurred crude prices higher. * TYZ6 cur
Along with the noted large tail, there was also the joint lowest indirect take with Sep 2021 and the lowest bid-to-cover since Dec 2018 - see chart: Indirect take (white), bid-to-cover (yellow)
* Tsy futures extends lows after large 3.1bp tail - 16th consecutive: $70B 5Y note auction (91282CRK9) drawing 5.033% high yield vs. 5.032% WI; 2.21x bid-to-cover vs. 2.37x prior (2.33x 5-auction avg) * Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up to 54.31% from 61.51% prior (65.91% 5-auction avg), direct take up to 29.92% vs. 2
* US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 5.033%; ALLOTMENT 30.34% * US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 15.77% OF COMPETITIVES * US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 29.92% OF COMPETITIVES * US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 54.31% OF COMPETITIVES * US TSY 5Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.21
Tsy futures are near mid-morning lows (FVZ6 -16.25 at 103-23.5; TYZ6 currently -24 at 105-08) ahead of the $70B 5Y note auction (91282CRN3) at 1300ET, WI is currently running at 4.967% - highest since July 1, 2006 - and 57.4bp cheap to last month's tail. * August auction recap: Tsy futures held near lows after a small
Highlights: * Xi Jinping heads to Washington, meetings with Trump in focus * Flash PMI data in focus, as well as more Fedspeak * USD strength pervades, putting key levels in both GBPUSD and USDMXN into view US TSYS: Paring Gains, Flash PMIs Ahead, Trump Welcomes Xi Tonight: s-xi-tonight-1790161492747 Treasuries are mil
* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET * 09/23 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications reported -1.5% from -4.1% prior * 09/23 0945 S&P Global US Mfg flash PMI (53.9, 53.7) * 09/23 0945 S&P Global US Services flash PMI (56.5, 55.8) * 09/23 0945 S&P Global US Composite flash PMI (56.0, 55.3) * 09/23 1005 Fed
Treasuries are mildly firmer, near recent lows with curves bull flattening: 2s10s at late February 2025 levels. Similar moves in EGBs following hawkish flash PMIs and softer crude prices. Oil decline as talks continue on sidelines following yesterday's UN gathering - US special envoy Witkoff said that lengthy talks hav
The US Treasury's $70B 5-year note auction draws 4.200% yield, with indirect bidders taking 61.6% of competitive bids
The 5-year note auction draws 4.2% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35 and a yield of 4.193%.
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5-year note auction.
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5-year note auction.
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction
The US Treasury is holding a 5 Year Note Auction