MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Crude Rebounds, Xi Comes to US
HIGHLIGHTS * Gov Barr (permanent FOMC voter)'s speech Tuesday is primarily on the longer-term outlook for the housing sector, but importantly he notes that his "base case" is for "further policy adjustments" (plural) * Iranian security chief Rezaii via Irib: "Iran has not been in a hurry to negotiate; today, Iran's conditions have been compiled and are currently in the hands of the Qatari and Pakistani parties." * Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at UNGA: "Iran must be understood by Mr. Trump and those who seek to bully us that we are ready for dialog and diplomacy and negotiations without accepting the language of force." * "A report that the US is considering a 90-day ban of diesel exports in an attempt to control record fuel prices is "fake news," a White House official said on Wednesday" Reuters. * Look ahead to Thursday: After Aussie jobs data, the focus will be on CB decisions in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. Meanwhile, headlines emanating from the Trump-Xi summit will garner significant attention after Xi. China bank holiday Thursday. US TSYS MNI US TSYS: Yields Climb to Multi-Decade Highs, Crude Bounces, Trump Welcomes Xi: unces-trump-welcomes-xi-1790191539114 * Treasu
" * Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at UNGA: "Iran must be understood by Mr. " * "A report that the US is considering a 90-day ban of diesel exports in an attempt to control record fuel prices is "fake news," a White House official said on Wednesday" Reuters. * Look ahead to Thursday: After Aussie jobs data, the focus will be on CB decisions in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. Meanwhile, headlines emanating from the Trump-Xi summit will garner significant attention after Xi.
China bank holiday Thursday. US TSYS MNI US TSYS: Yields Climb to Multi-Decade Highs, Crude Bounces, Trump Welcomes Xi: unces-trump-welcomes-xi-1790191539114 * Treasuries look to finish broadly weaker but off midday lows after yields climbed to the highest levels in 20 years Wednesday. Higher than expected S&P flash PMIs (carry over from hawkish flash PMIs for EGBs) triggered heavy selling, while doubts over US/Iran diplomatic efforts spurred crude prices higher. * TYZ6 currently -30 at 105-02 vs.
1079% vs. 1329% high. 033% high yield vs. 21x bid-to-cover vs.
33x 5-auction avg). 5 in Aug). Input costs also surged higher on the back of higher energy prices, less surprising considering the survey was collected 10-22 Sep, although selling price inflation was more muted and still below those seen through March-July. 4/bbl.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that if there is to be a deal with Iran, it would require hard work and time and that Tuesday talks with Iran were positive but not a breakthrough. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran was reviewing a US response to its proposal to end hostilities, although many differences remain between the sides. * Gov Barr (permanent FOMC voter)'s speech Tuesday: is primarily on the longer-term outlook for the housing sector, but importantly he notes that his "base case" is for "further policy adjustments" (plural).
"In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion. " * Look ahead to Thursday: After Aussie jobs data, the focus will be on CB decisions in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. Meanwhile, headlines emanating from the Trump-Xi summit will garner significant attention after Xi. China bank holiday Thursday.
461B with 4 counterparties this afternoon vs. 453B Tuesday. 731B on June 30, 2025. US SOFR/TREASURY OPTION SUMMARY SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: early SOFR call volumes saw rise in puts as underlying retreated, Treasury options leaning towards 10Y puts for second consecutive session.
Rate hike projections vs. 2bp). 5 vs. 25 total vs.
5 10,000 USV6 112 calls, ref 107-18 4,400 TYZ6 106 puts, 55 ref 106-02 1,000 USV6 107/108/109 call flys ref 107-24 MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Further Bear Flattening: ng-1790185441615 Bund yields hit a fresh cycle closing high Wednesday, with periphery/semi-core EGBs underperforming overall. * Near-term rate hike expectations rose throughout the session (another half-hike added to the ECB path with 4 hikes over the next 12 months) amid a steady flow of risk-negative Iran/MidEast headlines driving firmer energy prices (front Brent crude firmly above $100/bbl).
* The impact was compounded by strong PMI readings in both the Eurozone and the US (UK Composite missed slightly) and a hawkish speech by Federal Reserve Governor Barr applying a little more front-end pressure through mid-afternoon London time. * While the EGB and UK curves bear flattened sharply, 10Y Bund yields notably saw a post-2009 high close. * BTPs and GGBs underperformed overall, while OAT spreads moved to a fresh post-2012 wide vs 10Y Bunds. * Thursday's schedule includes the SNB and Riksbank decisions, German IFO, and UK and French consumer confidence data as well as appearances by the ECB's Lane and Schnabel plus BOE's Dhingra, Lombardelli, and Breeden.
845%. 83%. 5 in 2k MNI FOREX: USD Strength Extends Amid Sharp Yield Rise, Risk Sensitive FX Pressured: risk-sensitive-fx-pressured-1790188264953 * The significant shift higher for US yields on Wednesday has further boosted the US dollar, extending the recent optimism for the greenback following last week's Fed decision. On the session, a reversal higher for oil prices and stronger-than-expected US PMI data have provided key USD tailwinds.
80 peak reached in June. 14, while USDJPY has made a convincing break above both the post-BOJ highs and the 50-day EMA just above the 158 handle. However, it's the higher beta currencies that continue to bear the greater brunt of the cross-asset moves, with the likes of AUD, NZD and SEK remaining the poorest performers, down by around 1%. * AUDUSD has been testing an important support trendline in late trade, drawn from the Nov 2025 lows.
This provides an interesting backdrop ahead of the August labour market report in Australia, the highlight of the APAC calendar on Thursday. 6865 next. * Highlighting the vulnerability for risk sentiment on Wednesday, the emerging market FX complex has plummeted, with the EM FX basket approaching 1% declines today. 5% losses on the day.
USDMXN continues to standout, where a close at current levels would represent the largest nominal appreciation since March. 6764 are the next target. * After Aussie jobs data, the focus will be on CB decisions in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. Meanwhile, headlines emanating from the Trump-Xi summit will garner significant attention.
2bln) MNI US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Travel Stocks Underperforming: rforming-1790190100999 * US equity indexes hold weaker levels late Wednesday, near lows after higher than expected flash PMI data and a rebound in crude prices weighed on risk sentiment. 1%. 08%. 99%, analysts citing lackluster forecast tied to accelerating inflation.
5 billion franchisee support plan through 2036, which pressures short-term cash flow despite aiming for long-term modernization and a 50% operating margin by 2030. 01%. 00 Low Jun 11 A strong rally in S&P E-Minis on Monday marked a bullish start to this week's session and has strengthened the likelihood of a recent reversal and the end of a corrective cycle. Note too, that a bullish engulfing candle on Sep 17, also highlights a reversal signal.
00, the Aug 13 high and key medium-term bull trigger. 00, the Sep 16 low. 66, the 50-day EMA. MNI COMMODITIES: Crude Rises as US-Iran Optimism Eases, Precious Metals Fall: ous-metals-fall-1790188963727 * Crude oil has risen on Wednesday as earlier optimism around US-Iran diplomatic efforts has faded following more hardline rhetoric from Iranian officials.
4/bbl. * US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that if there is to be a deal with Iran, it would require hard work and time and that Tuesday talks with Iran were positive but not a breakthrough. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran was reviewing a US response to its proposal to end hostilities, although many differences remain between the sides. * For WTI futures, a bull cycle remains intact, and the recent pullback appears corrective.
69, the Sep 15 high. 34. 96, the 50-day EMA, a clear break of which would undermine the bull theme. * Elsewhere, precious metals have fallen today, as the significant move higher for US yields and weaker equity backdrop has provided further support for the US dollar.
5/oz. 6, the Sep 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent bear leg. 2, Fibonacci retracement points.
THURSDAY DATA CALENDAR ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date GMT/Local Impact Country Event 24/09/2026 0645/0845 ** FR Manufacturing Sentiment 24/09/2026 0645/0845 ** FR Consumer Sentiment 24/09/2026 0700/0900 ** ES PPI 24/09/2026 0715/0915 EU ECB Schnabel At Women Economic Forum 24/09/2026 0730/0930 *** SE Riksbank Interest Rate Decison 24/09/2026 0730/0930 *** CH SNB Interest Rate Decision 24/09/2026 0800/1000 *** NO Norges Bank Rate Decision 24/09/2026 0800/1000 *** DE IFO Business Climate Index 24/09/2026 0810/0410 US New York Fed's John Williams 24/09/2026 0900/1100 EU ECB Lane Lecture In Switzerland 24/09/2026 0930/1030 GB BOE Dhingra Panel on Monetary Policy Outlook 24/09/2026 1000/1100 ** GB CBI Distributive Trades 24/09/2026 - GB BOE MPG Meeting 24/09/2026 1200/0800 US Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin 24/09/2026 1200/0800 * US NY Fed SOFR 24/09/2026 1230/0830 ** US USDA-FAS Weekly Export Sales 24/09/2026 1230/0830 *** US Jobless Claims 24/09/2026 1230/0830 ** CA Retail Trade 24/09/2026 1230/0830 *** CA Retail Trade - Advance Estimate 24/09/2026 1230/0830 * CA Payroll employment 24/09/2026 1230/0830 * US Current Account 24/09/2026 1230/0830 ** CA Monthly Survey Manufacturing Advance Indicator 24/09/2026 1250/0850 US Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack 24/09/2026 1300/1500 ** BE BNB Business Confidence 24/09/2026 1300/0900 * US NY Fed EFFR 24/09/2026 1330/1430 GB BOE Breeden Fireside Chat at UK Macro Policy Forum 24/09/2026 1400/1000 *** US New Home Sales 24/09/2026 1400/1000 *** US New Home Sales 24/09/2026 1400/1500 GB BOE Lombardelli Speech at NBP Conference "Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous and Imperfectly Rational World" 24/09/2026 1410/1010 US Philly Fed's Anna Paulson 24/09/2026 1430/1030 ** US Natural Gas Stocks 24/09/2026 1530/1130 * US US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result 24/09/2026 1530/1130 ** US US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result 24/09/2026 1700/1300 ** US US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note 24/09/2026 1900/1500 *** MX Mexico Interest Rate 25/09/2026 2301/0001 ** GB Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence