Traders price in about a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike in October.
Traders price in about a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike in October.
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Fed Meeting Interest Rate Decision Preview: How Will Stocks React?
A Federal Reserve rate hike is largely priced in for Wednesday, but JPMorgan says the S&P 500 could still swing anywhere from 1% higher to 2% lower depending on how Chair Kevin Warsh frames the move. A surprise decision to hold rates steady could prove painful. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM ) estimates the index coul
Bitcoin rises to $79,000 after hotter core CPI
Bitcoin jumped back to $79,000 and Ethereum reached $2,600 after August core CPI came in at 0.3% month over month, versus a 0.2% estimate. Traders also repriced September Fed hike odds higher.
Hot core CPI lifts September hike odds to 80%
Prediction-market and futures pricing moved sharply toward a September Federal Reserve rate hike after core inflation came in hotter than expected. Polymarket put the chance of a 25-basis-point hike around 80%, while CME FedWatch showed 91.6% Friday morning.
Traders brace for August CPI’s razor-thin 0.2% or 0.3% call
August consumer price index data is due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% in August and headline CPI about 0.4%. The report is seen as key to whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next week.
EXCLUSIVE: Kevin Warsh’s Hawkishness Is a ‘Distraction From His Dovishness,’ Truflation CEO Says
Truflation CEO Stefan Rust told on Monday that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh ’s hawkishness is a "distraction from his dovishness," predicting no rate hike at next week’s meeting. Asked what could force Warsh to raise rates, Rust pointed to oil, which was trading around $97. "Oil prices are definitely going to driv
Silver slips near $65.50 as Fed-hike odds jump after jobs data
Silver fell to around $65.50 an ounce as stronger-than-expected August US nonfarm payrolls lifted bond yields. FedWatch pricing shows nearly a 60% rate-hike chance next week, up from about 50%.
Gold slips near $4,390 after jobs data lifts Fed hike odds
Gold fell to around $4,390 an ounce on Monday after stronger-than-expected US jobs data pushed bond yields higher. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August; unemployment held at 4.1%.
U.S. jobs data drives sharp rotation across stocks, bonds and gold
U.S. equities slipped as August payrolls of 162,000, far above the 55,000 consensus, pushed traders toward a higher Fed-rate path. Chips outperformed while software, retail, gold and bitcoin weakened.
Waller backs September hold unless August inflation accelerates
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is prepared to hold rates at the Sept. 15-16 meeting if disinflation continues, but would consider a hike if August inflation comes in hot.
Warsh comments lift September Fed hike odds, hit bonds and gold
Markets repriced after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with September Fed hike odds rising to 66.4% from roughly 36%. The two-year Treasury yield, dollar, gold, S&P 500 and TLT all moved on the shift.
Traders price about 50/50 chance of Fed hike in September
Rates futures pricing is putting the odds of a Fed hike in September at about 50/50.
Trump Says US Should Have the World's Lowest Interest Rates: What Do Prediction Markets Say?
President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rate in the world. He also called Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh “fantastic” while describing other board members as very political. Citadel Securities expects Warsh to not follow the President’s wis
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq 100 Falls as Crude Rallies to $88
U.S. stocks traded in split fashion by midday Wednesday, with a resilient Dow and S&P 500 masking softer breadth as rising oil prices and fresh tariffs kept a lid on risk appetite ahead of the first “Magnificent Seven” earnings of the season. Oil prices climbed as the U.S. carried out its 11th consecutive night of stri
Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
The S&P 500 rallied on Tuesday as strong corporate earnings and a rebound in semiconductor stocks lifted equities. However, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will open lower on Wednesday as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns cloud the outlook. The S&P 500 gained 0.89% to close at 7,509.20
Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
The S&P 500 climbed for a second straight session on Wednesday as fresh signs of easing inflation and upbeat corporate earnings supported equities. However, Polymarket traders are growing more cautious about Thursday’s open. The S&P 500 gained 0.38% to close at 7,572.40. However, the July 16 Polymarket contract implied
Oil Stocks Rally, S&P 500 Plunges As Iran Ceasefire Sinks: Stock Market Today
U.S. stocks fell for a second straight session on Wednesday as surging energy prices rekindled inflation fears and pushed Treasury yields higher, with equities sliding after President Donald Trump declared the June ceasefire with Iran “over.” The move followed a fresh U.S. strike on Iran and reports that Tehran had tar