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U.S. stocks look set to open in the red on Monday, with futures of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices falling following Friday’s higher close. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on markets after Iranian officials declared that the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until Washington meets seven c
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Jobs Report Shocker Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows the stock market is rising this morning. There are two reasons beh
Bond Danger Signal Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT ). Note the following: The chart shows TLT has fallen below the Arora danger zone. RSI on the chart shows TLT is oversold. Prudent investors should note TLT falling below the Arora danger zone is very important
Micron Earnings Ahead Please click here for an enlarged chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU ). Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point. The chart shows that leading up to last quarter’s release, MU stock ran i
" Throw your soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight. If they will face death, there is nothing they may not achieve." Sun Tzu, The Art of War Textbook macroeconomics says surging benchmark yields should crush high-multiple growth stocks and chill aggressive corporate inv
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said Tuesday that rising interest rates appear to be driven more by real yields than inflation, as she weighed in on Bill Ackman ‘s hypothesis that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes could backfire in an artificial-intelligence-driven economy. Real Yields, Not Inflation “Interest rates seem to
The S&P 500 is hovering near a record, but Michael Burry is struggling to dismiss a warning from fellow market bear Peter Schiff that the strength may be masking weakness underneath. Schiff recently pointed out on Substack that while the S&P 500 was just 0.7% below its record, 430 of its stocks were, on average, 21.7%
Iran Hopium Dashed Please click here for an enlarged chart of the United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO ). Note the following: The chart shows that this morning in the early trade oil ETF USO is rising. The chart shows that oil is now at the top band of zone 1 (resistance). The chart shows that oil is now at the same level
The S&P 500 dodged what is usually considered the weakest part of the four-year presidential cycle. According to Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, “market weakness has been modest and seasonally normal, and stocks are now entering the historically favorable Sweet Spot of the Four-Year Cycle, extending
U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Monday as Wall Street weighs resilience in equities against a backdrop of surging Treasury yields and escalating Middle East tensions. The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bearish for the Sept. 28 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 28?” cont
Bonds In Danger Zone Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT ). Note the following: In our analysis, smart money is adjusting stock market allocations based on the move in bonds. On the flip side, the momo crowd continues to be oblivious, and momo money flows continue
U.S. stocks look set for a positive opening on Friday, with futures of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising, after closing Thursday on a mixed note. Contributing to the optimism are comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on a nuc
Mohamed El-Erian noted that the rise in bond yields stems from government borrowing and Fed signaling, but added that the yield surge relies on long-evident fundamentals rather than any sudden market shock. Market Compares Yields to 2007 Crisis The entire U.S. bond yield curve is reaching multi-year peaks. The one-year
Quantum Computing Breakthrough Please click here for an enlarged chart of IONQ Inc (NYSE: IONQ ). Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of IONQ is being used to illustrate the point of a major technological breakthrough in the important technology of quantum compu
Good Morning Traders! Today’s economic calendar remains relatively limited, with the primary focus on the September Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs at 9:45AM ET. These reports should provide the cleanest fresh read on current business activity across both the manufacturing and service
CPU Fever Please click here for an enlarged chart comparing NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA ) and Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) Note the following: The chart shows that king of AI NVDA has returned 20.11% year to date. The chart shows that commodity ETF PDBC has returned 46.39% year t
The S&P 500 index advanced to within 1% of its record high on Monday while its constituents simultaneously registered more 52-week lows than highs, triggering a market signal observed only twice in the past century. Historical Market Breadth Signal On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to close at 7,764.70. This places the
Buying On Hopium Please click here for an enlarged chart of Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (NYSE: SOXL ). Note the following: Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite. The chart shows SOXL bounced above the top band of zone 3 (support) on Friday due to triple witching buying.
The national average price of a gallon of diesel has hit a record $6.51, while gasoline remains near historic highs. Yet, the U.S. economy does not seem to care. • State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust stock is moving in positive territory. Why are SPY shares climbing? The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model e
Reaction To Japan Rate Hike Please click here for an enlarged chart comparing SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX) and iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ). Note the following: The chart shows Japan ETF EWJ has outperformed S&P 500 by 81%. Excluding the impact of t
U.S. stocks are higher in early trade as triple witching approaches, oil falls and investors focus on rate-cut hopes. The piece also cites stronger AI-related money flows, softer housing data and mixed macro prints.
U.S. stock futures advanced on Thursday, as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, following Wednesday’s lower close. In a unanimous vote, all 12 Federal Open Market Committee members approved a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate, bringing the target range to 3.75%—4.00%. Amid the Middle Eas
Dovish Hike Hopium Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is in zone 1 (support). The chart shows buying in the early trade in stocks this morning. The buyin
Market Positioning Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart is a 15 minute chart to illustrate the price action since three AI leaders advocated for an AI slowdown. The chart shows the in
US consumer prices were slightly hotter than expected, with headline CPI rising 0.4% versus 0.4% consensus and core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus. Fed fund futures were indicating about an 88% probability of a rate hike next week.
US equities rose on Friday, ending four sessions of losses as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their surge.
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 futures were around 0.7% higher, while long-dated Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs as oil prices paused their surge.
S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 futures were about 0.5% higher as long-dated Treasury yields eased, with oil prices pausing their surge ahead of the CPI release.
After the producer price index release, fed fund futures were indicating about a 70% probability of a rate hike next week. Headline PPI was 0.4% versus 0.4% consensus, while core PPI was 0.2% versus 0.3% consensus.
Oil Surge Please click here for an enlarged chart of United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO ). Note the following: The chart shows USO is approaching zone 1 (resistance). The chart shows oil was previously in zone 1 when there was peak Iran fear. RSI on the chart shows oil is very overbought. Prudent investors should make a