Why Is The Market Celebrating A Weak Jobs Report?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Jobs Report Shocker Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows the stock market is rising this morning. U.

to release oil and diesel The chart shows the stock market is approaching the low band of zone 1 (resistance). RSI on the chart shows the stock market has room to run. The chart shows that it will not take much for the stock market to slice through the resistance and make a new high. On the other hand, if the stock market is not able to maintain its gains, it will technically be a negative.

The jobs report is a shocker. Here are the details: Headline nonfarm payrolls came at 29K vs 84K consensus. Private nonfarm payrolls came at 46K vs 100K consensus. 3% consensus.

1% consensus. 4 vs. 3 consensus. As of this writing in the premarket, the stock market is celebrating very weak job creation.

The reason for the celebration is the stock market is addicted to artificially low interest rates. Weak jobs growth almost assures that the Fed will likely not raise interest rates in the October meeting. We had previously shared with you that the Fed was unlikely to raise interest rates in October. The reason is that if the Fed were to raise interest rates in October just before the midterm elections, the Fed would have to deal with President Trump.

In our analysis, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October is now less than 5%. Fed fund futures are indicating a probability of 16%. 1%. This is well below the inflation rate.

The consumer is losing buying power. S. economy is 70% consumer based, historically the consumer is very important to the economy, and in turn the stock market. This time, it is a K-shaped economy.

Lower income consumers are suffering, while the top 10% are doing extremely well due to the AI boom, high stock market, and ability to earn higher interest rates on cash balances. As much as stock market bulls may contend that the lower income population does not matter because they do not invest in the stock market anyway, the lower income population does vote. The continuing trend of the lower income population suffering could ultimately lead to business unfriendly policies in Washington over the next few years, unless the trend reverses. In our analysis, potentially business unfriendly policies over the next few years could negatively impact the stock market.

U. to release 50M barrels of diesel and 50M barrels of oil from reserves. This is in response to President Trump requesting President Macron to release 100M barrels of diesel. The price of diesel has skyrocketed, increasing shipping costs.

S. Saudi Arabia has increased flow in the East-West pipeline to 80% of capacity. Oil is falling in response to the above developments. Blind money will continue flowing into the stock market this afternoon.

Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis irrespective of market conditions. Magnificent Seven Money Flows Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, it is important to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. com, Inc.

(AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (TSLA). In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ). Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.

The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO). Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing buying.

What To Do Now Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions and add tactical positions based on signals. The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. Most recently, we correctly called the rally from recent stock market lows and the 2026 semiconductor decline before a 25% drop in the Semiconductor ETF (SMH). In gold, we bought at an average price near $1,105, close to cycle lows, and took partial profits near $5,400, close to cycle highs.

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