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The odds of another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in October plunged to 16% Friday after U.S. job growth came in far below expectations. Traders on Polymarket had put the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at about 69% on Monday, before softer inflation data, cautious Fed commentary and Friday’s weak jobs re
Bond Danger Signal Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT ). Note the following: The chart shows TLT has fallen below the Arora danger zone. RSI on the chart shows TLT is oversold. Prudent investors should note TLT falling below the Arora danger zone is very important
U.S. stocks look set to open on a mixed note on Thursday, with futures of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices falling, while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose, following Wednesday’s mixed close. Iran announced receiving a U.S. response regarding a proposal to restore the collapsed Gulf ceasefire as final U.S. troops completed
Micron Earnings Ahead Please click here for an enlarged chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU ). Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point. The chart shows that leading up to last quarter’s release, MU stock ran i
U.S. stocks look set to open in the green on Wednesday, with futures of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices rising, following Tuesday’s lower close. Before the opening bell, all eyes will be on the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, fo
U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Wednesday as Wall Street assesses fresh corporate earnings, stabilizing oil prices, and significant domestic inflation data amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics. The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bullish for the Sept. 30 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SP
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appointed Jefferies strategist David Zervos as a department counselor to advise the agency on rising bond yields. A ‘Wall Street Geek’ Joins the Treasury According to CNBC, Zervos, who called himself a “Wall Street geek” in a brief interview, will serve in a broad advisory capacity and
Bonds In Danger Zone Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT ). Note the following: In our analysis, smart money is adjusting stock market allocations based on the move in bonds. On the flip side, the momo crowd continues to be oblivious, and momo money flows continue
U.S. stocks look set for a positive opening on Friday, with futures of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising, after closing Thursday on a mixed note. Contributing to the optimism are comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on a nuc
Quantum Computing Breakthrough Please click here for an enlarged chart of IONQ Inc (NYSE: IONQ ). Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of IONQ is being used to illustrate the point of a major technological breakthrough in the important technology of quantum compu
Good Morning Traders! Today’s economic calendar remains relatively limited, with the primary focus on the September Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs at 9:45AM ET. These reports should provide the cleanest fresh read on current business activity across both the manufacturing and service
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Wednesday, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices rose, while Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 declined, following Tuesday’s mixed close. During his address at the UN General Assembly, President Donald Trump warned that he could “annihilate” Iran if negotiations fail. “Will a deal be made with
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday, as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices rose and the Nasdaq 100 index fell, following Monday’s higher close. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Iranian airlines will be "shut down" worldwide by Wednesday, warning foreign entities that providing fuel or landing se
The national average price of a gallon of diesel has hit a record $6.51, while gasoline remains near historic highs. Yet, the U.S. economy does not seem to care. • State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust stock is moving in positive territory. Why are SPY shares climbing? The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model e
The national average price for diesel reached $6.51 per gallon on Monday. A commodity strategist stated the supply disruption has moved into a diesel market that “no handshake can refill.” Record Prices Hit Harvest and Freight The U.S. average diesel price hit an all-time high of $6.5107 per gallon on Sept. 21, 2026, a
Reaction To Japan Rate Hike Please click here for an enlarged chart comparing SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX) and iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ). Note the following: The chart shows Japan ETF EWJ has outperformed S&P 500 by 81%. Excluding the impact of t
Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates by 25 basis points, economist Justin Wolfers criticized President Donald Trump for threatening trade tariffs in response to central bank policy, stating the linkage “makes no economic sense.” Policy Defiance Wolfers highlighted the full consensus within the central
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spent his first post-hike press conference reiterating the Fed’s battle against inflation, and stocks gave back the entire session’s advance while he did it. “Today’s action starts to show we are serious about this,” Warsh said. “And we will deliver on the price stability objective, an
The Federal Reserve delivered the quarter-point rate hike Wall Street expected Wednesday. But its new projections suggest the Fed isn’t done: 16 of 18 policymakers see at least one more increase this year. The Fed unanimously raised its target rate to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023. Median Projection Implies O
Dovish Hike Hopium Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is in zone 1 (support). The chart shows buying in the early trade in stocks this morning. The buyin
The S&P 500 has historically posted more muted returns during Federal Reserve tightening cycles that featured five or more rate hikes, according to historical market data shared by Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. Historical Data Reveals Muted S&P 500 Performance Detrick identified 12 post-World War I
Forecasts for the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ), diverge as AI dictates market direction, while specialized ETFs continue to outperform SPY over a five-year horizon. However, market strategists remain locked in a tug-of-war between $1 trillion in projected AI capital expenditures and growi
US consumer prices were slightly hotter than expected, with headline CPI rising 0.4% versus 0.4% consensus and core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus. Fed fund futures were indicating about an 88% probability of a rate hike next week.
U.S. equity funds recorded $32.27 billion of net outflows in the week through Sept. 9, but several large-cap and semiconductor ETFs still drew strong creations on Wednesday. VOO took in $2.99 billion, QQQ $2.73 billion, SPY $1.26 billion, while SOXX and SMH also attracted inflows.
After the producer price index release, fed fund futures were indicating about a 70% probability of a rate hike next week. Headline PPI was 0.4% versus 0.4% consensus, while core PPI was 0.2% versus 0.3% consensus.
Oil Surge Please click here for an enlarged chart of United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO ). Note the following: The chart shows USO is approaching zone 1 (resistance). The chart shows oil was previously in zone 1 when there was peak Iran fear. RSI on the chart shows oil is very overbought. Prudent investors should make a
The VIX closed in the low 14s to 17s through August, and strategists said the long calm, tight credit spreads and weak correlation can mask rising systemic risk.
Hang Seng fell 0.2%, or 39 points, to 25,280 as investors stayed cautious over rising oil prices and Middle East tensions. Brent moved toward US$100 after attacks on Saudi energy facilities; chip and AI strength cushioned declines.
Former Goldman commodities chief Jeff Currie said Scott Bessent’s recent Treasury market interventions amount to financial repression and create a long-term buying opportunity for gold and other hard assets.
Mohamed El-Erian said global government-bond yields may keep rising as traditional buyers, including China, Japan and Gulf investors, pull back from U.S. Treasuries.