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To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Jobs Report Shocker Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows the stock market is rising this morning. There are two reasons beh
Bond Danger Signal Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT ). Note the following: The chart shows TLT has fallen below the Arora danger zone. RSI on the chart shows TLT is oversold. Prudent investors should note TLT falling below the Arora danger zone is very important
Micron Earnings Ahead Please click here for an enlarged chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU ). Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point. The chart shows that leading up to last quarter’s release, MU stock ran i
U.S. stocks are higher at midday Wednesday, led by technology and software shares, after softer-than-expected inflation data eased fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Oil is climbing again, however, and long-dated Treasury yields remain close to multi-decade highs. • United Therapeutics stock is charging ahead
" Throw your soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight. If they will face death, there is nothing they may not achieve." Sun Tzu, The Art of War Textbook macroeconomics says surging benchmark yields should crush high-multiple growth stocks and chill aggressive corporate inv
Iran Hopium Dashed Please click here for an enlarged chart of the United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO ). Note the following: The chart shows that this morning in the early trade oil ETF USO is rising. The chart shows that oil is now at the top band of zone 1 (resistance). The chart shows that oil is now at the same level
Bonds In Danger Zone Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT ). Note the following: In our analysis, smart money is adjusting stock market allocations based on the move in bonds. On the flip side, the momo crowd continues to be oblivious, and momo money flows continue
Quantum Computing Breakthrough Please click here for an enlarged chart of IONQ Inc (NYSE: IONQ ). Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of IONQ is being used to illustrate the point of a major technological breakthrough in the important technology of quantum compu
Good Morning Traders! Today’s economic calendar remains relatively limited, with the primary focus on the September Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs at 9:45AM ET. These reports should provide the cleanest fresh read on current business activity across both the manufacturing and service
CPU Fever Please click here for an enlarged chart comparing NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA ) and Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) Note the following: The chart shows that king of AI NVDA has returned 20.11% year to date. The chart shows that commodity ETF PDBC has returned 46.39% year t
Buying On Hopium Please click here for an enlarged chart of Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (NYSE: SOXL ). Note the following: Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite. The chart shows SOXL bounced above the top band of zone 3 (support) on Friday due to triple witching buying.
The national average price of a gallon of diesel has hit a record $6.51, while gasoline remains near historic highs. Yet, the U.S. economy does not seem to care. • State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust stock is moving in positive territory. Why are SPY shares climbing? The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model e
Reaction To Japan Rate Hike Please click here for an enlarged chart comparing SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX) and iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ). Note the following: The chart shows Japan ETF EWJ has outperformed S&P 500 by 81%. Excluding the impact of t
U.S. stocks are higher in early trade as triple witching approaches, oil falls and investors focus on rate-cut hopes. The piece also cites stronger AI-related money flows, softer housing data and mixed macro prints.
Dovish Hike Hopium Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is in zone 1 (support). The chart shows buying in the early trade in stocks this morning. The buyin
Market Positioning Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart is a 15 minute chart to illustrate the price action since three AI leaders advocated for an AI slowdown. The chart shows the in
US consumer prices were slightly hotter than expected, with headline CPI rising 0.4% versus 0.4% consensus and core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus. Fed fund futures were indicating about an 88% probability of a rate hike next week.
After the producer price index release, fed fund futures were indicating about a 70% probability of a rate hike next week. Headline PPI was 0.4% versus 0.4% consensus, while core PPI was 0.2% versus 0.3% consensus.
Oil Surge Please click here for an enlarged chart of United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO ). Note the following: The chart shows USO is approaching zone 1 (resistance). The chart shows oil was previously in zone 1 when there was peak Iran fear. RSI on the chart shows oil is very overbought. Prudent investors should make a
Snowflake reported Q2 EPS of $0.62 versus $0.45 expected and revenue of $1.55 billion versus $1.48 billion expected, while raising FY27 product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion.
Musk says robots could be five times more productive than a human and could start manufacturing other robots, creating a recursive manufacturing effect.
Global bond yields are rising, with Japan’s 10-year government bond yield at 3%, the highest since 1996. The note says the move is pressuring stocks early, especially AI-linked names.
Oil is rising after the U.S. struck two rocket launchers on Larak Island, with traders also reacting to hawkish comments from Warsh and broad early selling in stocks.
Nvidia reported Q2 earnings of $2.22 a share versus $2.09 expected, with revenue of $96.2 billion versus $92.18 billion expected. It sees Q3 revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and guided FY28 revenue growth to about 70%.
Personal income rose 0.4% versus 0.2% consensus, personal spending rose 0.2% versus 0.2% expected, and PCE came in at 0.2% versus 0.1% consensus, while Q2 GDP second estimate matched forecasts at 1.5%.
U.S. PCE inflation data, personal income and spending, GDP and durable orders are scheduled for tomorrow, while Nvidia earnings are due after the close.
The article says Treasury Secretary Bessent’s increased buyback of long-dated securities has helped iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT bounce out of the danger zone, while the initial euphoria faded.
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.33%, its highest since June 2007, while long-dated government yields also rose in Japan, Germany, France and the UK.
Walmart reported Q2 EPS of $0.81 versus $0.74 consensus and Q2 revenue of $187.9B versus $186.62B consensus, while guiding Q3 EPS to $0.62-$0.64 versus $0.68 consensus.
Mohamed El-Erian says the U.S. Treasury’s move to at least double liquidity-support buybacks for long-dated bonds is a short-term “Band-Aid,” while Treasury says the change runs Sept. 9 through Nov. 4.