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Gold has spent 2026 living through a war in the Gulf, an oil shock and inflation stuck above 3%. That should have been ideal for a hedge against inflation and disorder. Instead, the metal trades roughly 25% below its January peak. The reason is a number the bond market last printed in 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield r
Gold traded near $4,400 an ounce after a prior-session decline of about 1%, pressured by rising bets for an imminent September Fed rate hike after stronger US jobs data. Markets lifted odds to roughly 60% from around 50%.
Micron and SanDisk rose even after a stronger-than-expected U.S. August jobs report lifted Treasury yields and pushed September Fed hike odds above 50% on Polymarket.
Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 16 increased after August U.S. jobs data came in stronger than expected. LSEG data shows markets priced a 61% probability of a hike.
Friday's August employment report may decide whether the Fed pauses or raises rates on Sept. 16, with CME FedWatch pricing a 50-50 split. Economists expect 56,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.1% and hourly earnings up 0.3% month on month.
New York Fed President John Williams said the recent climb in Treasury yields is driven largely by a strong U.S. economy, with higher real rates and investment demand playing a bigger role than inflation compensation.