Hot U.S. jobs report lifts rate-hike odds, memory stocks rise 4%
Micron and SanDisk rose even after a stronger-than-expected U.S. August jobs report lifted Treasury yields and pushed September Fed hike odds above 50% on Polymarket.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU ) and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK ) jumped Friday even as a surprisingly strong jobs report sent Treasury yields higher and revived the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Micron rose 5% and SanDisk 8% in early trading, sharply outperforming the broader market after the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%.
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple expectations for 56,000, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
July payrolls were revised from an initially reported loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000.
The report also jolted prediction markets.
A 25-basis-point September hike stood at about 41% on Polymarket before the release, then climbed above 50% afterward.
The contract climbed as high as 53% this morning, before settling at 51%, with more than $93 million traded on the market.
Memory Stocks Shrug Off Rate Scare The two-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.34% to as high as 4.425% after the report, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures turned lower.
Memory stocks kept climbing despite the hawkish repricing.
Other rate-sensitive trades moved in the opposite direction.
Gold miners sold off sharply, with spot gold down about 1.4% and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF falling roughly 1.9%, highlighting how unusual the strength in Micron and SanDisk was after the jobs report.
Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL ) COO Jeff Clarke summed up the supply problem on the company’s earnings call this week: "DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND." Clarke said supply remains insufficient and shortages stretch across much of the semiconductor chain, even as demand for Dell’s servers continues to outrun supply.
The shortage is translating into higher prices.
Susquehanna expects DRAM contract prices to rise more than 50% this quarter, while NAND prices could climb about 60%.
DRAM accounts for roughly three-quarters of Micron’s revenue, while SanDisk is heavily exposed to NAND flash storage.
Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zaccarelli said Friday that if stocks shake off the jobs report, it could show that optimism around the AI build-out and strong corporate earnings matter more for investor sentiment than changes in Fed policy.
Memory Shortage Outweighs China Concerns Friday’s surge follows a muted Thursday, when Micron gained just 0.22% and SanDisk 0.10% despite a 1.4% Nasdaq rally.
The stocks lagged as Chinese rivals gained memory-market share.
CXMT doubled its DRAM revenue share to 10% from 4% a year earlier, while YMTC’s NAND share climbed to 14% from 9%.
August CPI on Sept.
11 and the Fed’s Sept.
16 decision are the next tests.
Another hot inflation print could push hike expectations higher and show whether memory stocks can keep shrugging off rates.
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