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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * TRUMP HAILS IRAN TALKS EVEN AS TEHRAN SETS 'FIRM POSITIONS': #0244e48b-2945-4b3b-8085-728a924ddf38 * ZELENSKY ASKS TRUMP FOR WINTER ARMS PACKAGE, EXPECTS ENERGY-CEASEFIRE PUSH: WSJ: #cddd3044-ae77-4efa-9233-fb28b1e6f368 * NAGEL SAYS 'VIGILANT' ECB MAY NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE RATES: #13be4029-5b8c-40
The Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in more than three years is hardly in doubt. Traders assign a 93% probability to a quarter-point increase Wednesday, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%—4.00%. Ask economists what happens next, however, and three different tightening cycles emerge. An MNI compilation of analyst
A Reuters poll of economists expects the Federal Reserve to raise its interest rate on Wednesday and deliver at least one additional hike by the end of March, reversing a prior no-change consensus after firmer inflation data.
The U.S. labor market cooled in June with employers adding 57,000 jobs, falling short of the 110,000 economists had expected and sharply decelerating from May’s reading of 129,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, below the 4.3% consensus. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month, matching the 0.3% expec