NHC: Tropical depression likely to form off Mexico coast
A broad area of low pressure offshore of southern Mexico could develop into a tropical depression within the next day or two, the National Hurricane Center said. The system may bring heavy rainfall to southern and southwestern Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center said at 500 AM PDT on Tue Oct 6 2026 that for the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude it is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel, which was located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Southern Mexico (EP92), shower and thunderstorm activity has increased around a broad low-pressure area offshore southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across parts of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the system's progress. Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 90 percent, and formation chance through 7 days is also high at 90 percent. South of Guatemala, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear Conditions are conducive for gradual development of the system as it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low at near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days remains low at 20 percent.