US Futures Mixed, VIX Up; Euro Rises on Rate Expectations, China Output Slows

Lead US equity futures are mixed, with Nasdaq futures up 0.55% while Dow futures are down 0.07%. The VIX is up 5.05%. The Euro strengthens near $1.160 on shifting rate expectations, while China's industrial output growth slows to 4.5% YoY. Oil prices continue to climb, with WTI crude up 1.01% and Brent crude up 0.83%, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. Session narrative US stock futures are mixed this morning, with S&P 500 futures down 0.4891% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2302%. The VIX is up 4.8716%. European equities are broadly lower, with the CAC 40 falling 0.4% for its sixth consecutive session, nearing a three-week low. Germany's DAX 40 is also down about 0.4% for a second session. Broader European indices, the Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600, are slipping around 0.3%. In economic news, the UK unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% in July, while employment change was -13k. Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations printed at 31.4, up from 23.4 previously, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 34.2, exceeding the 30 forecast. Home Depot reported Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $4.92, topping expectations of $4.73, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Crude oil prices are extending gains, with WTI crude up 0.5613% and Brent crude up 0.1431%, as US-Iran tensions persist and the prospect of an interim peace deal weakens. Tanker rates are surging towards $510,000 a day. Cross-asset check Equity futures are mixed, with S&P 500 futures down 0.4891% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2302%. The VIX is up 4.8716%. In fixed income, the US 10-year yield is up 0.5963% at 4.72%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.006%. EUR/USD is down 0.0259% at 1.1578, while USD/JPY is up 0.1751% at 159.65. Commodities are seeing gains in oil, with WTI crude up 0.5613% and Brent crude up 0.1431%. Gold is down 0.5678% and silver is down 1.6624%. Copper is down 1.0732%. Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be a dominant theme, impacting oil prices and shipping routes. The expiration of the US-Iran interim deal and President Trump's rejection of an extension are fueling uncertainty. The earnings season is ongoing, with companies like Home Depot reporting results and reaffirming guidance. Concerns about the AI boom are also being voiced, with J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Bill Eigen warning that the pace of AI growth and valuations are starting to resemble the 2008 housing crash. What’s ahead No specific economic data or events are scheduled for release later today that are expected to significantly impact the market.