US Futures Down; 10-Year Yield at 2025 Highs, Housing Starts Miss, Geopolitical Tensions Persist

## Lead US equity futures are broadly lower this morning, with Nasdaq futures down 1.35% and S&P futures down 0.50%. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading at its highest levels since January 2025, currently at 4.74%. Economic data released today showed US import prices falling 0.4% month-on-month, a larger decline than the 0.1% forecast. July housing starts also missed expectations, coming in at 1.239 million SAAR against a forecast of 1.350 million. Geopolitical tensions remain a focus, with Qatar urging a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and establish a ceasefire. ## Session narrative Equity futures are indicating a negative open for US markets, with the Nasdaq 100 futures leading the declines, down 1.35%. S&P 500 futures are off by 0.50%, and Dow futures are down 0.15%. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, has risen 3.95% today, reflecting increased investor caution. In the fixed income market, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.74%, reaching its highest point since January 2025. This move comes as new economic data shows US import prices declining by 0.4% month-on-month, a more significant drop than anticipated. Additionally, July housing starts disappointed, printing at 1.239 million SAAR, below the 1.350 million forecast. These economic figures, combined with rising geopolitical concerns, are influencing market sentiment. Crude oil prices are higher, with WTI crude up 0.79% and Brent crude up 0.28%, amid reports of a Houthi drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery and continued Strait of Hormuz tensions. Gold prices are down 0.54%. Corporate news includes Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) trading lower by over 3% in premarket after closing a $4.75 billion senior notes offering. TruGolf (TRUG) announced plans to acquire Polymath Research, aiming to bring a tokenization-focused business to Nasdaq. Axe Compute (AGPU) received $317 million in customer prepayments for AI contracts. Fortun Holdings (FRTU) reported strong Q2 2026 results, with revenue up 18% and income up 82%. Pliant Therapeutics (PLRX) received FDA Fast Track designation for PLN-101095 in combination with pembrolizumab for ICI-refractory solid tumors. BioMarin (BMRN) is set to acquire Alesta Therapeutics for its hypophosphatasia program. On the macro front, the ADP Employment Report showed 9,500 new jobs, up from the prior 8,300. Eurozone ZEW expectations rose to 31.4 from 23.4, indicating improved sentiment in the region. ## Cross-asset check In currencies, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly up 0.01%. EUR/USD is down 0.02%, while USD/JPY is up 0.19%. GBP/USD is down 0.09%. Commodities are mixed; WTI crude is up 0.79% and Brent crude is up 0.28%. Gold is down 0.54% and silver is down 1.53%. Copper is also lower by 0.91%. Natural gas is up 0.71%. The US 10-year yield is up 0.34%, reflecting pressure on bond prices, with long-duration Treasuries (TLT) down 0.88%. The VIX is up 3.95%, indicating increased market anxiety. ## Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions remain a significant theme, with Qatar's efforts to contain the crisis and bring Iran and the US back to a memorandum of understanding. The Houthi drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery and the impact on oil supertanker rates, which are surging towards $510,000 a day, underscore the ongoing risks in the Middle East. The AI boom continues to be a dominant narrative, but with increasing caution. JPMorgan's Bill Eigen warned that the AI boom is starting to resemble the 2008 housing crash, focusing on the deceleration of growth and capital expenditure rather than headline levels. NVIDIA's previous announcement of OpenAI's commitment to roughly $600 billion in compute through 2030 highlights the massive investment in this sector, while companies like Airgain are securing IoT design wins for AI data center infrastructure. ## What’s ahead Market participants will continue to monitor geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran relations. The implications of rising Treasury yields on equity valuations will also be a key focus. Further details from the ADP National Employment Report for August 1, 2026, will be scrutinized for insights into the labor market. Earnings reports, such as TJX Companies' Q2 earnings due tomorrow, will provide company-specific updates. Additionally, central bank commentary, like ECB’s Lane's remarks on inflation, will be watched for any shifts in monetary policy outlooks.