US Futures Rise, 10-Year Yield Down; Gold Jumps, Treasury Expands Buybacks

Lead US equity futures are broadly higher this morning, with Nasdaq futures up 0.38% and S&P futures up 0.39%. The 10-year Treasury yield is down 1.21%. Spot gold jumped $15 intraday, and the US Treasury announced it will double long-end liquidity buyback caps. Session narrative US equity futures are showing gains in pre-market trading, rebounding from earlier mixed sentiment. Nasdaq futures are up 0.38%, S&P futures are up 0.39%, and Dow futures are up 0.41%. The Russell futures are also higher by 0.53%. The VIX is down 2.65%. In the rates market, the US 10-year yield is down 1.21% to 4.65%, and long-duration Treasuries are up 1.83%. This comes as the US Treasury announced it will at least double maximum liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal Treasuries to at least $4B per operation starting September 9 through November 4. The effective fed funds rate remained unchanged at 3.63% on August 18. The dollar index is down 0.48%, with EUR/USD up 0.55% to 1.1641 and USD/JPY down 0.65% to 158.547. GBP/USD is up 0.50% to 1.3599. Commodities are seeing strength in precious metals, with gold up 1.20% and silver up 1.34%. WTI crude is down 0.11% to $83.97, and Brent crude is down 0.55% to $90.52. Natural gas is up 2.56%. Corporate news includes Cerebras unveiling new AI server hardware, and several earnings reports from companies like Lowe's, Analog Devices, and Estee Lauder. Cross-asset check Equity futures are in the green across the board, signaling a positive open. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 0.21% in early trading, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is down 1.12%. The Dow ETF (DIA) is down 0.24%. The VIX is lower, suggesting easing volatility. In fixed income, the decline in the 10-year yield and the Treasury's buyback announcement are key drivers. The dollar is weaker against major currencies. Gold and silver are rallying, potentially indicating safe-haven demand or inflation concerns. Crude oil is slightly down, while natural gas is up significantly. Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions persist, with reports of an Israeli Chief of Staff tour in southern Syria and NATO officials citing alleged Iran plans to attack US targets in Europe. The Iran war is nearing its half-year mark, with Washington and Tehran betting they can outlast one another. The UAE has cut economic ties with Tehran after missile accusations. In the tech sector, Cerebras unveiled CS-4 server hardware, claiming significantly faster AI chatbot inference performance compared to NVDA and AMD GPU setups, highlighting ongoing innovation and competition in AI hardware. The bond market is reacting to the US Treasury's expanded liquidity buyback operations, which aim to support longer-dated nominal Treasuries. This comes ahead of the July FOMC minutes, which will provide further detail on the central bank's rate-path positioning after a 9-3 hold vote. What’s ahead Today brings the July FOMC minutes from a meeting where policymakers voted 9-3 to hold rates. This document will be closely watched for any renewed rate-path positioning. Earnings season continues with various companies reporting results. The expanded Treasury buyback operations will begin on September 9 and run through November 4, which could influence bond market dynamics.