US Futures Mixed; Geopolitical Tensions Rise, NVIDIA Sees OpenAI Commitments

## Lead US equity futures are mixed this morning, with Nasdaq futures up 0.21% while Dow futures are down 0.33%. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with Iran setting deadlines for the US and shifting to an "offensive" policy. Meanwhile, NVIDIA announced OpenAI's commitment to roughly $600 billion in compute through 2030. ## Session narrative US equity futures are showing a mixed picture in pre-market trading. Nasdaq futures are up 0.21%, while Dow futures are down 0.33% and S&P futures are flat. The VIX is up 5.47%. Geopolitical concerns are prominent, with Iran issuing deadlines for the US regarding an MOU and stating a shift to an "offensive" policy, which could impact oil markets. WTI crude is up 0.59%. On the corporate front, NVIDIA announced that OpenAI's commitments represent approximately $600 billion in NVIDIA compute through 2030, a significant boost for the tech sector. Canadian CPI data came in higher than expected, with the headline YoY figure at 3% versus a 2.9% forecast, potentially influencing rate expectations. The NY Fed Manufacturing Index also rose to 20.6, exceeding the 10 forecast. The US Dollar Index is down 0.20%, and the euro is strengthening near $1.160. The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low against the dollar. In M&A news, Universal Health Services completed its acquisition of Talkspace, and Madison Air announced plans to acquire ebm-papst. ## Cross-asset check Equity futures are mixed, with Nasdaq futures gaining and Dow futures declining. The VIX is up over 5%. In rates, the ten-year yield is up 0.25%, and long-duration Treasuries are down 1.12%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.20%, while the euro is up 0.19% against the dollar. WTI crude is up 0.59%, and Brent crude is up 0.70%, likely influenced by geopolitical developments. Gold is up slightly, while silver and copper are also showing gains. Natural gas is down 2.37%. ## Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions remain a dominant theme, with Iran's statements regarding the US and the Strait of Hormuz driving concerns. This is contributing to volatility and impacting energy markets. The strong demand for AI infrastructure, highlighted by NVIDIA's announcement of OpenAI's commitments, continues to be a key driver for the tech sector. Inflationary pressures are also in focus, with stronger-than-expected Canadian CPI data adding to the narrative. The market continues to monitor central bank responses to these economic indicators. ## What’s ahead Traders will be watching for further developments on the geopolitical front, particularly any responses to Iran's statements. The ongoing inflation narrative and its implications for monetary policy will also be closely scrutinized. Corporate earnings and any new economic data releases will provide additional catalysts for market movement.