US Futures Mixed, Oil Rises on Hormuz Tensions; Dollar Slips

Lead US equity futures are mixed in European midday trading, with Nasdaq futures up 0.14% while Dow futures are down 0.12%. Crude oil is up, with WTI gaining 0.70% to $81.82, following a drone strike near the Strait of Hormuz. The US Dollar Index is down 0.24%, contributing to gains in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down to 4.64%. Applied Materials reported strong Q3 results, boosting its Q4 outlook. Session narrative European markets are seeing mixed performance as US equity futures trade sideways. Nasdaq futures are slightly positive, while Dow futures are marginally lower. Geopolitical tensions are in focus after a drone strike near the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed crude oil prices higher. WTI crude is trading above $81.80, extending weekly gains. The US Dollar Index is weaker, contributing to gains in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The Swiss franc steadied near a one-year low amid Middle East uncertainty. US 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly to 4.64%. Economic data from China showed July total social financing at 1.41 trillion yuan, exceeding consensus, while Eurozone GDP flash estimate matched forecasts at 1.0% YoY. France's CPI also matched expectations at 2.1% YoY. Applied Materials reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $10.25 billion ± $500 million and adjusted EPS of $3.82–$4.22. Cross-asset check In equities, S&P 500 futures are up 0.05%, while Nasdaq futures are up 0.14%. Dow futures are down 0.12%. The VIX is down 0.48% to 14.56. In commodities, WTI crude is up 0.70% to $81.82, and Brent crude is up 0.26% to $87.30. Natural gas is up 1.14% to $2.76. Gold is down 0.31% to $4406.9. In currencies, the US Dollar Index is down 0.24% to 99.73. EUR/USD is up 0.23% to 1.1558, and GBP/USD is up 0.31% to 1.3529. USD/JPY is down 0.22% to 159.152. In rates, the US 10-year yield is down 0.88% to 4.64%. Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key driver, particularly for oil prices, following a drone strike near the Strait of Hormuz. This has also contributed to concerns about European gas supply security, keeping natural gas prices elevated. China's economic data, including total social financing and outstanding total social financing, are being closely watched for signs of economic health. The ongoing debate around the US economy's shape, as highlighted by economist Justin Wolfers challenging Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, continues to be a point of discussion. Central bank policies, especially from the ECB and SNB, are under scrutiny as inflation and growth figures are released. What’s ahead Later today, traders will be looking at US retail sales data, US inventories data, and US consumer-sentiment data for further market direction. The EIA's forecast for US oil and gas production averages for August-September will also be monitored. Further announcements regarding US actions on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are expected next week, which could impact oil markets.