Nasdaq 100 Leads US Equities Higher; Oil Drops Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Lead US equities closed mostly higher today, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF gaining 1.22% and the S&P 500 ETF up 0.69%. The Dow ETF saw a modest rise of 0.14%. Crude oil prices fell, with WTI down 2.46% and Brent down 2.24%, as geopolitical developments in the Middle East continued to unfold. Session narrative US equities finished the session with gains for the tech-heavy Nasdaq and broader S&P 500, while the Dow also edged higher. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) rose 1.22%, and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) increased by 0.69%. The Dow ETF (DIA) posted a 0.14% gain. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also saw a gain of 0.25%. Futures mirrored this trend, with Nasdaq futures up 1.16%, S&P 500 futures up 0.67%, and Dow futures up 0.11%. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, was up 0.07%. In the fixed income market, the US 10-year yield (TNX) declined by 0.88% to 4.64%, while long-duration Treasuries (TLT) gained 0.50%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.04%. Major currency pairs saw EUR/USD up 0.03% and USD/JPY up 0.09%. GBP/USD was down 0.07%. Commodities saw significant movement, with WTI crude (CL) falling 2.46% to $81.22 and Brent crude (BZ=F) down 2.24% to $86.99 amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold (GC) also decreased by 1.37% to $4406.2, and silver (SI=F) was down 1.72%. Natural gas (NG=F) fell 2.57%. Copper (HG=F) was down 0.48%. Economic data released today included US continued jobless claims at 1.777M, lower than the 1.794M forecast, and initial jobless claims at 209k, exceeding the 202k expectation. The EIA reported a natural gas change of 36B Bcf. Cross-asset check Equities were broadly positive, led by tech. Bonds rallied slightly with the 10-year yield falling. The dollar was marginally weaker. Commodities, particularly oil and precious metals, were under pressure, reflecting ongoing geopolitical concerns and demand prospects. NMAX reported strong licensing revenue growth, while Trump commented on tariff revenue losses. The geopolitical landscape remained active. Japan protested Russia over a visit to Etorofu. An explosion was reported in Sirik, with a missile and drone launched toward Hormuz. US CENTCOM chief discussed potential joint strikes with Israel, targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Turkey expects US pressure on Israel. The US military reportedly lost 25% of its Reaper drones, and a new aircraft carrier is being sent to the Middle East. US Defense Secretary Hegseth stated the US can maintain a blockade against Iran. Houthis targeted an Aramco refinery in Jizan. UKMTO reported continued IRGC harassment of merchant shipping. An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader discussed an offensive strategy if conditions are not met. The PBoC set its 1-year interest rate, and various banks offered views on US CPI, with Japan and Canada CPI also flagged as watchpoints. The session saw a mix of equity strength, bond gains, and commodity weakness, all against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions. Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continued to be a dominant theme, impacting oil prices and global security concerns. The ongoing discussions and actions related to US tariff policy also remained a point of focus. The broader global energy supply and demand dynamics, influenced by both economic outlook and geopolitical events, continued to shape commodity markets. What’s ahead Market participants will continue to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly any further actions or statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz and regional conflicts. Upcoming economic data releases, including CPI figures from Japan and Canada, will be closely watched for indications of inflation trends and central bank policy implications. Any further updates on US tariff policy or trade negotiations will also be key.