Geopolitical Tensions Persist, Norway CPI Higher; US Futures Mixed

Lead Geopolitical concerns continue to influence markets, with reports of Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia and ongoing discussions around the Strait of Hormuz. Norway's July CPI came in higher than expected at 3.0% year-over-year. US equity futures are mixed, with Nasdaq futures up 0.38% while Dow futures are down 0.03%. Session narrative European markets are navigating a mixed session as geopolitical tensions remain a key driver. Reports from Ukraine indicate drone attacks on Russian refineries and an airfield in Tatarstan, adding to the ongoing conflict. This follows earlier reports of a Russian Defense Ministry claim of hitting three vessels near Ukraine's Odesa. Meanwhile, discussions around the Strait of Hormuz continue, with Iran stating that senior officials could visit Pakistan only when 'appropriate conditions' are in place, and that a deal with Oman includes fees for maritime services. Iran's Foreign Ministry also noted that regional states are realizing security is not a 'commodity that can be purchased by lying brokers.' On the economic front, Norway's July CPI registered 3.0% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 2.8% and up from the previous 2.7%. The month-over-month CPI was 1.0%, compared to a previous -0.2%. This higher-than-expected inflation data could influence monetary policy expectations in the region. China's PBoC has vowed to maintain Yuan stability. In corporate news, Apple has been cut to Underperform at Jefferies, while Morgan Stanley upgraded HPE to Overweight and NTAP to Equal Weight. Goldman Sachs raised UBS Group's target price to CHF 47. KBR was awarded a $208 million Army contract. US equity futures are showing a mixed picture ahead of the US session, with Nasdaq futures posting gains, while Dow and Russell futures are slightly down. Cross-asset check In commodities, Natural Gas is up 3.76% and Silver is up 1.15%. WTI crude is up 0.65% and Brent crude is up 0.69%. Gold is up 0.06%. The US Dollar Index is up 0.16%, with USD/JPY up 0.65%. The US 10-year yield is down 0.21%. The VIX is up 3.83%. The S&P 500 ETF is up 0.59%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF is up 1.12%, and the Russell 2000 ETF is up 1.15%. The previous session saw gold up 1.68% and silver up 4.82% due to geopolitical concerns. US equity futures were mixed, with S&P futures up 0.13% and Nasdaq futures up 0.38%. The US 10-year yield was up 1.15%. Asian equities closed mixed, with WTI crude down 0.13% and gold futures up 0.09%. The CNN Money Fear and Greed index remained in the 'Greed' zone on Friday, reflecting improved investor sentiment after the S&P 500 surged to a record close following jobs data. The US economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July against forecasts of an 80,000 gain, and average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% on the month and 3.2% on the year, both below consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. The US Transportation Secretary touted over 2,000 new air traffic controllers after a gamer hiring push. Cloudflare CTO proposed new internet traffic rules for satellites, which Elon Musk sent to his Starlink team. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker demanded oil companies return 'windfall profits' due to Iran war-induced price spikes. The Fed Interest Rate Probabilities are also being closely watched. The latest news includes Apple potentially absorbing iPhone 18 Pro cost surges and softening iPhone 18 price increases. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated that Iran is not negotiating with the US, and exchange of messages is through mediators focused on Hormuz talks with Oman. Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions remain a dominant theme, with ongoing conflict in Ukraine and heightened sensitivity around the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation concerns are resurfacing, particularly with Norway's higher-than-expected CPI. Corporate news includes significant analyst ratings changes for major tech companies like Apple and HPE. What’s ahead Market participants will continue to monitor geopolitical developments, especially regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. The focus will also be on any further economic data releases that could influence central bank policy, particularly inflation indicators. Corporate earnings and analyst revisions will also be key drivers for individual stock performance.