Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold and Silver Higher; US Futures Mixed Ahead of Jobs Report

Lead Geopolitical concerns, including a Russian Defense Ministry report of hitting three vessels near Ukraine's Odesa, are contributing to a risk-off sentiment, pushing gold up 1.68% and silver up 4.82%. US equity futures are mixed, with S&P futures up 0.13% and Nasdaq futures up 0.38%, as markets await the upcoming jobs report. The US 10-year yield is up 1.15%. Session narrative European trading sees a mixed picture with US equity futures showing slight gains for S&P and Nasdaq, while Dow futures are flat. Geopolitical developments are a key driver, with reports of Russian military action near Ukraine's Odesa and ongoing discussions around the Strait of Hormuz. This has fueled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver surging nearly 5% and gold gaining over 1.6%. In fixed income, the US 10-year yield has risen by 1.15%, impacting long-duration Treasuries which are down 0.84%. Crude oil prices are slightly lower, with WTI down 0.19% and Brent down 0.42%. The dollar index is marginally lower. Several European CPI figures have been released, including from Sweden, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands. Corporate news includes downgrades for TTD and GAP, and price target raises for NET and Ralph Lauren. Cross-asset check Equity futures are mixed, with S&P futures up 0.13% to 7745, Nasdaq futures up 0.38% to 29601, and Dow futures up 0.03% to 54031. The VIX is up 0.92% to 15.29. In the bond market, the US 10-year yield is up 1.15% to 4.67%, and long-duration Treasuries are down 0.84%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.01% to 99.92. EUR/USD is up 0.05% to 1.1531, while USD/JPY is down 0.04% to 158.385. Commodities show significant movement, with silver up 4.82% to 64.58 and gold up 1.68% to 4371.8. Crude oil is down, with WTI at 77.14, a 0.19% decrease, and Brent at 82.14, a 0.42% decrease. Copper is down 0.42% and natural gas is up 0.04%. Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical tensions remain a dominant theme, with the Russian Defense Ministry reporting hits on three vessels near Ukraine's Odesa and in Chornomorsk. This comes as Trump indicates progress on a Strait of Hormuz deal. The US is also actively working to secure critical minerals from global miners. Inflation continues to be a focus, with various European CPI data releases and reports of significant increases in homeowners insurance premiums in the US, with insurers dropping policies at an alarming rate. Corporate earnings and analyst actions are also in focus, with downgrades for TTD and GAP, and upgrades for PWR and Energy Fuels. What’s ahead US markets are steady ahead of the upcoming jobs report. Investors will continue to monitor geopolitical developments, particularly concerning Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz. Further corporate earnings and economic data releases will also be key for market direction.