US Futures Mixed; Hormuz Deal Progresses; Nonfarm Jobs Up 79.2K; Constellation Energy Raises Outlook

# US Pre-Open Brief ## Lead US equity futures are mixed this morning, with Dow and S&P futures showing gains while Nasdaq futures decline. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are easing as Iran and Oman reportedly agree to reopen the strait. Macroeconomic data indicates a resilient labor market with nonfarm jobs up 79,200 and productivity rising 1.4%. ## Session narrative US equity futures are showing a mixed picture in pre-market trading. Dow futures are up 0.22% and S&P 500 futures are up 0.13%, while Nasdaq futures are down 0.56%. This follows a mixed performance in the previous session. Geopolitical events are a key focus, with reports indicating that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This news comes amidst earlier reports of a tanker hearing explosions in the strait, highlighting the volatility of the situation. Separately, North Korea fired a missile towards the East Sea, prompting an emergency meeting in South Korea, adding to global security concerns. On the economic front, new data points to continued strength in the US labor market. Nonfarm jobs increased by 79,200, and unit labor costs rose by 1.3%. US productivity also saw a 1.4% increase. These figures suggest a robust economic environment, though some economists are calling for the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. Corporate earnings continue to provide stock-specific catalysts. Constellation Energy raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance, and Parker-Hannifin reported Q4 EPS that beat estimates. Uber's CTO noted that thousands of engineers are now using advanced AI tools, with the company cutting the cost per token, signaling a focus on AI efficiency. ## Cross-asset check In the broader market, the US 10-year yield is up 0.61% to 4.64%, reflecting some upward pressure on rates. WTI crude oil is up 1.45%, and Brent crude is up 1.52%, likely reacting to the developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold is also up 0.52%. The US Dollar Index is marginally higher by 0.07%. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is up 1.14%. ## Themes & continuing stories Geopolitical developments remain a dominant theme, particularly the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the recent missile launch by North Korea. These events have direct implications for energy markets and broader risk sentiment. The resilience of the US labor market, as evidenced by the nonfarm jobs report and productivity data, is another key theme, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The ongoing corporate earnings season continues to shape individual stock performance and sector trends, with companies like Constellation Energy and Parker-Hannifin providing updates. Discussions around AI efficiency and cost reduction, as highlighted by Uber, are also gaining traction. ## What’s ahead Market participants will continue to monitor the geopolitical landscape, especially any further developments regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Korean Peninsula. The implications of the latest labor market data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook will be closely watched. More corporate earnings reports are expected, which will provide further insights into the health of various sectors and the broader economy. The discussion around AI's impact on corporate efficiency and cost structures will also likely continue to be a focus for technology and related sectors.