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Treasury yields are jumpy heading into the second half of 2026, and Wall Street has good reason to be nervous. Yields capped a third consecutive quarterly rise on Tuesday, the last trading day of a first half that — despite severe geopolitical tensions and an energy crisis — ended on a surprisingly strong note. The S&P
The S&P 500 ended June on a strong note, capping off its best quarter since 2020, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index could start the second half of the year on a weaker footing. The S&P 500 gained 0.79% to close at 7,499.36 on Tuesday. However, the July 1 Polymarket contract implies just a 27% proba