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Ross Pamphilon, CIO of fixed income at Impax Asset Management, says the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are increasingly working at cross-purposes, potentially worsening bond market volatility.
Markets repriced after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with September Fed hike odds rising to 66.4% from roughly 36%. The two-year Treasury yield, dollar, gold, S&P 500 and TLT all moved on the shift.
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.7% year over year in July, above economists’ 3.6% estimate, while core PCE held at 3.3% and monthly headline and core PCE both rose 0.2%.
As Wall Street debates whether Citadel Securities ’ call for a surprise Federal Reserve rate hike this week is viable, macro researcher Jim Bianco highlighted that current market pricing showing a 38% probability means the firm’s prediction “is not that far” from reality. Citadel Foresees End of Forward Guidance Report
Michael Burry has put long-duration Treasury bonds back in the spotlight, warning that a combination of AI-driven debt expansion, rising inflation volatility, elevated oil prices and mounting stress in the Treasury basis trade could keep upward pressure on long-term yields — a challenging backdrop for long-duration bon