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News 2026-10-14 11:45 UTC

MUFG on US CPI

Base-case: Rounding will be a key driver of market reaction, with a 0.24% unrounded core feeling very different from a 0.15%. An initial rally is expected, led by the 2yr, but the composition will determine if it extends well past 8:30 or if it fades (widespread vs narrow set of items). The September PPI will be especi

News 2026-10-13 14:01 UTC

MUFG on Fed

Fed funds futures now price less than a 20% probability of a rate hike at this month's FOMC meeting. New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed caution last week about back-to-back rate hikes, and Governor Christopher Waller echoed that view this week. Their views on inflation differ

News 2026-10-07 11:14 UTC

MUFG on Fed Minutes

The USD/JPY high today of 158.51 is just at the 200-day moving average level and if breached would certainly signal scope for further gains over the short-term. Some of the upward momentum for the US dollar has eased following the US employment report last week but the data has not had a notable impact on market expect