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The bank lifted its forecast by $5/bbl, citing risks to Middle Eastern supply. Analysts said supply adaptation may eventually lower prices, while renewed escalation poses significant net upside risk.
The outlook remains for oil prices to moderate as Middle Eastern supply continues to adapt, although renewed geopolitical escalation leaves risks skewed significantly to the upside. The Brent December 2026 forecast has been raised to $90/bbl from $85, as persistent supply risks are expected to slow the unwinding of the