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The flattening US Treasury yield curve, a consequence of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, indicates an increased risk of recession within the next two years. However, current real-economy data has not yet confirmed this warning.
Regional markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.30% and the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield last at 5.165%. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,282.98 an ounce.
Global stocks were little changed, while Japanese government bond yields climbed to historic levels and US Treasury yields edged lower. Gold rose and Brent crude eased, with traders still pricing in further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * MNI FED: Gov Barr: Base Case Is For Further Hikes: #83aa171c-7fc4-49fd-82f5-351bcb071d96 * MNI IRAN: Security Chief Says In No Rush To Negotiate: #5df7e2ac-e490-4920-91fd-84069fe559a3 * MNI IRAN: Pezeshkian Talks On Nuclear, Hormuz & US Stance In UN Address: #c9b6854d-8cab-47cb-8646-ce411062279c * M
The USD/JPY has stalled toward 158.00 with reports of potential BOJ intervention, following a range of 156.83-157.78 and a broader market sentiment influenced by a dovish BOJ stance and hawkish Fed signals. Support has been found around 149-152, with technical testing of 157.00-159.00. The market is reacting to differi
U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly after the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signaled a hawkish stance to fight sticky inflation.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot for the September dot plot. The other 18 officials’ dots for 2026 imply a hawkish stance, with all but two officials thinking that today’s rate increase won’t be the last, according to TradingView News market talk.
The surprisingly hawkish note struck this week by the Federal Reserve’s new Chairman Kevin Warsh has prompted a step-change in sentiment toward the dollar DXY. Interest rate differentials are the chief determinant of currency trends and with expectations for U.S. interest rates now markedly higher, the dollar looks as
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's tough talk on inflation reverberated through financial markets, with traders expecting that the central bank could start jacking up interest rates in just a few months. A popular narrative that Warsh was sent to the Fed to ease monetary policy at all costs was quickly dispelled within the spa
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's tough talk on inflation reverberated through financial markets, with traders expecting that the central bank could start jacking up interest rates in just a few months. A popular narrative that Warsh was sent to the Fed to ease monetary policy at all costs was quickly dispelled within the spa