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The Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in more than three years is hardly in doubt. Traders assign a 93% probability to a quarter-point increase Wednesday, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%—4.00%. Ask economists what happens next, however, and three different tightening cycles emerge. An MNI compilation of analyst
Wall Street has spent weeks debating whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates Wednesday. The futures market has almost stopped debating. Traders assign a 93% probability to a quarter-point hike, which would lift the federal funds rate to 3.75%—4.00%. It would be the Fed’s first increase since July 2023. On