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Markets repriced after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with September Fed hike odds rising to 66.4% from roughly 36%. The two-year Treasury yield, dollar, gold, S&P 500 and TLT all moved on the shift.
Markets assign a 59.9% probability to a 3.50%-3.75% outcome and 40.1% probability to 3.75%-4.00% for the September meeting, against a current target range of 3.50%-3.75%.
Fed funds pricing shows a 61.9% probability of a 3.50%-3.75% target range at the September meeting and 38.1% for 3.75%-4.00%.
September meeting probabilities: 49.9% at 3.50%-3.75%, 50.1% at 3.75%-4.00%
Brent crude oil prices topped $100 per barrel on Thursday morning, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled fears of supply disruptions. The move has already triggered noticeable reactions across financial markets, from energy stocks to Treasury yields and foreign
The biggest macro disagreement on Wall Street today isn’t about inflation or economic growth. It’s about the direction of interest rates. A new survey from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), whose Economist Council includes chief economists from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan,
The current target rate is 3.50%-3.75% with a 67.9% probability of remaining the same at the July meeting
The current target rate is 3.50%-3.75% with probabilities for July meeting showing 63.7% for 3.25%-3.75% and 36.3% for 3.75%-4.00%