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By Ann Saphir and Michael S. DerbyFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh dislikes giving any guidance about the likely path of U.S. interest rates, but elevated inflation, oil at more than $100 a barrel, and his own emphasis on the need to deliver price stability and to pay attention to signals from…
The first half of 2026 saw the market shift from anticipation of rate cuts to a "higher-for-longer" stance, while navigating changes in Federal Reserve leadership and communication style. Still, what the market may not be fully discounting is the possibility of an outright rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool sees just ove
Treasury yields are jumpy heading into the second half of 2026, and Wall Street has good reason to be nervous. Yields capped a third consecutive quarterly rise on Tuesday, the last trading day of a first half that — despite severe geopolitical tensions and an energy crisis — ended on a surprisingly strong note. The S&P
**Notes/Observations** - Month-end data flow was broadly constructive for the eurozone but added to the ECB's policy dilemma. French preliminary June CPI surprised to the downside at 1.8% y/y (vs 2.0%e), bringing headline inflation back to target for the first time in three months, while French consumer spending (+0.5%