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News 2026-07-29 13:25 UTC

Fed Meeting Prediction Market Preview: What Will Kevin Warsh Say?

Two weeks ago, a Federal Reserve rate hold on Wednesday looked like a lock. Then the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed, oil spiked, and traders started repricing fast. Polymarket still gives a 76% chance the Fed stays put, and a 24% chance of a 25bps increase. Stocks fell after Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish June debut. Th