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Strategists say France remains the main topic in client discussions as foreign investors sell and domestic buyers step in during sovereign stress episodes. They also warn that these flow shifts may not prevent further spread widening.
Societe Generale strategists expect a rotation from foreign to domestic investors in the French government bond market as uncertainty persists. They said wider spreads may remain likely, but investors are unlikely to exit OATs altogether.
Thomas Mathews at Capital Economics says most major government yield curves are unlikely to steepen much further over the medium term, despite recent term-premium moves.