Cocoa Futures at 4-Month Low

Cocoa futures eased to below $5,100 a tonne, reaching their lowest since early July, mainly pressured by rising inventories. ICE cocoa inventories have been rising since the start of the year, recently reaching a fresh 2.5-year high of 3,740,476 bags. Meanwhile, the market continued to closely monitor weather conditions in the top cocoa-growing region of West Africa. In top producer Ivory Coast, October rainfall was irregular amid the influence of El Niño, arriving late and in insufficient amounts to support flowering and fruit development. Reuters, citing cocoa industry technicians and exporters, indicated that Ivory Coast's 2026/27 mid-crop harvest could plunge 42—50% yoy to 300,000—350,000 tonne. There are fears that Harmattan winds in December and January, coupled with the dry season lasting until March, will damage flowers and newly formed fruits.Meanwhile, hotter and drier conditions in neighbouring Ghana and Nigeria also threatened crop development.