Arabica Coffee Futures Hover at Over 1-Month Lows

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, holding close to their lowest since September 24, pressured by expectations of increased Brazilian supply, with a subdued real further encouraging farmer selling. Coffee has been arriving rapidly from Brazil since mid-September, with ICE inventories of Brazilian coffee rising to a 9.25-month high of 83,678 bags by November 5. This is particularly important at a time when stocks remain at critically low levels. ICE reported that 55,396 bags of Brazilian coffee were awaiting grading at ICE warehouses, marking the highest level in seven weeks, suggesting certified stocks could rise further. Adding to the bearish outlook, consultancy Hedgepoint recently indicated that favourable rainfall and mild temperatures in September and October raised supply prospects for the 2027/28 crop. However, potential El Niño-related weather disruptions through early 2027 remain an upside risk to prices.