Goldman Sachs: Copper
Copper price forecasts have been raised as tighter supply and intensifying US-China competition deepen the ex-US market deficit. China’s shortage of domestic scrap, partly driven by stricter VAT invoicing rules, is forcing manufacturers to substitute refined copper for scrap, tightening inventories. Meanwhile, US stockbuilding continues to divert metal from other markets ahead of potential tariffs. With mine supply also weaker than expected, the projected ex-US deficit has increased to 950kt in 2026 and 220kt in 2027, from 640kt and 170kt previously. The forecast for end-2026 copper has risen to $14,700/t from $13,735/t, while the 2027 average forecast increases to $15,400/t from $13,800/t. Scrap-to-cathode substitution in China is estimated to add $945/t to the end-2026 forecast and $2,985/t to the 2027 average, partly offset by greater scrap use among smelters. US overbuilding is now expected to reach around 1Mt in 2026, with a further 400kt in 2027 under the baseline assumption of no tariff announcement. Potential refined copper tariffs remain a risk, particularly after the US midterm elections. Investor positioning provides another source of upside, supported by copper’s exposu
Copper price forecasts have been raised as tighter supply and intensifying US-China competition deepen the ex-US market deficit. China’s shortage of domestic scrap, partly driven by stricter VAT invoicing rules, is forcing manufacturers to substitute refined copper for scrap, tightening inventories. Meanwhile, US stockbuilding continues to divert metal from other markets ahead of potential tariffs. With mine supply also weaker than expected, the projected ex-US deficit has increased to 950kt in 2026 and 220kt in 2027, from 640kt and 170kt previously.
The forecast for end-2026 copper has risen to $14,700/t from $13,735/t, while the 2027 average forecast increases to $15,400/t from $13,800/t. Scrap-to-cathode substitution in China is estimated to add $945/t to the end-2026 forecast and $2,985/t to the 2027 average, partly offset by greater scrap use among smelters. US overbuilding is now expected to reach around 1Mt in 2026, with a further 400kt in 2027 under the baseline assumption of no tariff announcement. Potential refined copper tariffs remain a risk, particularly after the US midterm elections.
Investor positioning provides another source of upside, supported by copper’s exposure to AI, electrification, energy security and hard assets. Rather than reverting to neutral, positioning is assumed to remain near its year-to-date average of 16% of open interest in 2027, adding an estimated $775/t to the annual average forecast. Continued competition for available metal, persistent Chinese substitution demand and sustained investment flows underpin the more bullish outlook.