ANALYSIS — Gulf cost edge keeps chemical buyers hooked despite Hormuz risks

Price outweighs supply-risk concerns for most buyers Diversification is rising, not replacement North American producers see near-term opportunity Middle East cost advantages remain hard to replicate By Pooja Menon Oct 15 (Reuters) — Chemical buyers are unlikely to permanently shift away from Middle Eastern suppliers despite disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, as the region's competitive pricing and production scale remain difficult to rival, analysts said.

The Middle East accounted for more than 40% of global polyethylene exports last year, supplying Asia, Europe and Latin America with petrochemicals used in packaging, consumer goods and industrial products. The Strait's closure following the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February has taken nearly 20% of global ethylene capacity and as much as 40% of Asian naphtha supply offline, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, pushing prices higher. Brett Massimino, an associate professor of supply chain and analytics at Virginia Commonwealth University, said the disruptions have accelerated "dual sourcing".

Gulf producers retain most volumes because of their cost advantage, while domestic and regional suppliers have captured roughly 20% of demand, up from almost negligible levels before the war. Cost Advantage Limits Buyer Exodus Chemical buyers remain reliant on the Middle East because of its proximity to Asian and European markets and abundant naphtha supplies, said Maksim Sonin, an energy executive affiliated with Stanford University's Center for Fuels of the Future and Hydrogen Initiative.

A BASF spokesperson told Reuters that recent disruptions have reinforced the importance of diversifying supply chains, but are unlikely to diminish the Middle East's long-term significance, given its cost advantages and extensive production base. It remains uncertain whether sourcing patterns will fully return to pre-crisis levels, the spokesperson added. Price remains the dominant factor in purchasing decisions, particularly for commodity chemicals, said Morningstar analyst Christian Flemming. Near-term Shift Possible Concerns about reliable Middle Eastern supply could boost near-term demand for North American petrochemicals.

"However, these shifts are typically temporary, and we do not expect a permanent move away from Middle Eastern suppliers," Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein said. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar remain among the world's most competitive petrochemical producers, benefiting from cheap hydrocarbon feedstocks and decades of investment that few regions can match. "Chemical companies are still viewing the conflict in the Middle East as temporary rather than a trend, but we may still see shifts in trade flows due to other factors," said Elizabeth Sterner, assistant professor of chemistry at Lebanon Valley College in Pennsylvania.

She added supply disruptions and reduced polyethylene availability in parts of the Middle East have pushed prices higher, prompting some North American and European producers to raise ethylene cracking rates to capture demand. Producers Benefit From Tighter Markets The supply disruptions have tightened global chemical markets, giving producers greater pricing power and allowing them to pass higher costs on to customers.

Dow Chief Financial Officer Jeff Tate said in July that polyethylene prices had risen more than 40% since late February, while Eastman Chemical reported a nearly 10% increase in its second-quarter revenue, supported by higher volumes and a 4% rise in selling prices. A Wacker Chemie spokesperson said the company had secured raw materials, continued to meet demand and passed on some conflict-related costs to customers. (Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru; editing by Arpan Varghese and Sriaj Kalluvila) ((mailto:Pooja.Menon@thomsonreuters.com;)