Bitcoin falls 1.2% as portfolio debate grows

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day. com's Simon-Peter Massabni says in a note. European fiscal stability faces growing headwinds as the WSJ reports that France is considering issuing more short-term debt after foreign investors showed reluctance to hold longer-dated paper, he says.

The report "indicates that market participants fear deep political paralysis in Paris will prevent the government from executing necessary public spending cuts," he says. Persistent energy inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict also weigh on the euro, he says. 1160 on Monday, its lowest level in more than 16 months, LSEG data show. com) 0757 ET - Two down and one to go.

After this week's successful auctions of 3-year and 10-year notes, $22 billion in 30-year bonds is set to be auctioned today. Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management, says the 30-year bond reopening should act as another litmus test for investor demand for duration and if the auction goes anything like the 10-year auction, it should be well received. 5%. 1% in August as some of June and July's strong growth unwound, but this shouldn't obscure broader resilience, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says in a note.

5% in 3Q," he says. Industrial production likely stagnated in August, while construction and services output are expected to decline. Still, AI adoption should support IT and other key sectors. Looking ahead, rising inflation, higher interest rates and a weakening labor market are likely to slow growth sharply in the fourth quarter and into 2027, he adds.

com) 0729 ET - Bitcoin is increasingly competing with other asset classes for a place in diversified long-term portfolios, which changes how its recent decline should be interpreted, says Maksym Sakharov of WeFi. "This represents a different way of valuing the asset than in previous cycles because the discussion gradually shifts from whether bitcoin belongs in a portfolio to how much exposure it deserves relative to every other asset competing for long-term capital," he says. Sakharov adds bitcoin's mainstreaming doesn't make it immune to macroeconomic conditions or changes in investor sentiment, however. 2% at $82,422.

S. this year, JPMorgan analysts write. "With both chambers of Congress now out of session ahead of the 2026 midterms, we think passage of crypto legislation in this Congress through December 31 is unlikely," they say. Even Democrats who had been active in crafting the bill voted against it in the Senate, they note.

84 trillion in September, its highest level since January this year, JPMorgan analysts say. Prices moved more quickly and dramatically in September, raising investor activity, they say. September trading volumes increased on-month, though short-term momentum wasn't enough for average daily volumes to reach highs from the second quarter of 2026. Ether outperformed bitcoin over the month, while alt coins outpaced both, they note.

com) 0624 ET - Eurozone inflation beat expectations in September but this likely won't be enough to sway the European Central Bank into raising rates just yet, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. A hike in December remains in the cards, however. Policymakers are becoming increasingly vocal that higher yields should limit the need for central bank hikes, he says. The selloff in bonds acts to tighten financial conditions by pushing up mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs.

"[ECB President Christine] Lagarde said as much last week, arguing that the notable rise in long-term rates since the September meeting will slow growth and ease the pass-through of energy costs to inflation," Ryan says. Investors rank about an 80% chance of an ECB hike in December, LSEG data shows. com) 0621 ET - The cost of default protection for French government bonds is steady but remains high as investors become more cautious amid political and fiscal uncertainty. High levels of public debt have raised fears about France's fiscal sustainability.

Investors wait to see whether the French government will be able to secure enough votes in the National Assembly to pass the proposed 2027 budget, which includes spending cuts, XM's Raffi Boyadjian says in a note. The French five-year sovereign credit default swaps are unchanged at 80 basis points, staying close to the multi-year high of 84 bps hit last week, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. com) 0621 ET - The cost of insuring euro credit against default rises as risk appetite falls due to high oil prices and increased inflation concerns.

"With the prospect of an Iran peace deal on the backburner, it is natural that risk tolerance will fall," XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 10 basis points to 316bps, a six-month high, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. S. dollar rises in midday European trade as Treasury yields rose across the curve, keeping near recent multiyear highs, with inflation risks seen tilted to the upside, according to the Federal Reserve's minutes.

Markets assign a probability of just 19% of another Fed rate hike on Oct. 28, but an increase is fully priced by year-end, with further tightening expected in 2027. com's Konstantinos Chrysikos says in a note. 341%, according to Tradeweb.

413. com) 0557 ET - Negative developments in the eurozone have boosted the appeal of sterling against the euro, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. K. government will try to limit the risk a negative market reaction in the October 28 budget given challenging global bond market conditions, which would be positive for sterling, he says.

8445 reached Wednesday, LSEG data show. com) 0553 ET - Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest further have strengthened the dollar but the currency hasn't risen as sharply as it did following the 2022 energy price shock, MUFG Bank analysts say in a note. "On this occasion, dollar gains have been constrained by the resilience of global growth, particularly in Asia and Europe, where economic activity has held up better than expected," they say. 535 Monday.

com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires October 08, 2026 08:41 ET (12:41 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.