TD Expects Bank of Canada to Hold Rates at 2.25% This Week as Economy Shows Resilience

The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% at this week's policy meeting, as recent data reinforces the view that the economy is resilient despite elevated uncertainty, TD Economics said in a note Friday. A recovery in trade and continued labor market resilience suggest activity remains supported, wrote the bank in a note. At the same time, the absence of significant oil price pass-through into inflation reduces the need for near-term policy action. The BoC is slated to release its policy decision on Wednesday. Last week's "trade surprised to the upside, while another month of job gains, albeit modest, suggest the economy remains in a low gear, but has shaken off recession concerns," wrote TD Economist Maria Solovieva in the note. Despite monthly volatility, the job market conditions continue to improve, added TD after Friday's Labour Force Survey for June. Employment has increased year-on-year, led by gains in full-time and private-sector employment, while the unemployment rate has fallen slightly faster than expected. The youth jobless rate also eased to 12.7%, down from September's peak of 14.6%. Trade data provided further evidence of improving.